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Armwood v. Plant: Prospect Review

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Armwood vs. Plant
Defense ruled the contest, as evidenced by the 9-2 final score in Armwood’s favor. Neither offensive line held up against the pressure the opposing defense brought. Plant had a tough time diagnosing Armwood’s 3-4 defense, leaving little time for Murray to throw and no lanes to run in. Armwood, won this one by scoring the only non safety score in the game.
I'll speak quickly about individual performances...

Ryan Giddins
Kid is an absolute monster. He was all over the field and ensured that Aaron Murray had a long night. The only thing that stopped him all night was when his legs cramped towards the end of the game. That being said, it didn’t take long for him to get back in the swing of things, as he deflected an Aaron Murray throw that turned into the interception that killed Plant's last drive. I wish I believed that FSU has a chance, but I don't. It seems that UF has the inside track, with Armwood’s Gator head coach. USF is probably in a close second.

Aaron Murray
The stats don't tell the story of how hard this kid fought tonight. He has a strong arm capable of making all the throws. He might need to clean up his delivery a bit, but in college football that doesn't matter all that much, as long as it doesn't affect accuracy. He was on the run pretty much every throw. It would have been easier to evaluate him if his line was able to block Armwood’s front seven. I think he is very much deserving of his lofty national ranking, and should put up his typical numbers (based on last year’s production), now that Ryan Giddins, Man Man, and Petey Smith aren’t chasing him around.

Orson Charles
I'm usually very skeptical about "big time" TE recruits. This is a very tough position to forecast. To me, a Tight End should block first, and catch second. There are hundreds of undersized high school tight ends who catch well. Most rankings, however, are based on pass catching ability, not blocking prowess. Orson seems to be used similarly to Antonio Gates, in that he was split wide for the most part, and didn’t do very much blocking. He does have great hands and caught most everything Murray threw his way. He would be a great get for the Noles, if for no other reason than to prevent him from becoming the next of the great Miami Tight Ends.

Petey Smith
This linebacker was all over the field and moves very well, considering his build (stocky). I would expect him to follow his brother to Auburn, though he could end up with Alabama. It’s a shame that we slow played Eric (Petey’s brother) last year, because both would be assets to the undersized ‘Nole linebacker corps.

It's Gametime! Western carolina Preview!

First, the guys at Chantrant did a great job previewing Western Carolina. Read that before you read our goals for the game. I thought about previewing WCU, but my preview wouldn't be anywhere near as good as the one they did.

What am I looking for from FSU against WCU?

70% passing We will be running wide open throughout this game. Can the new 'Noles QB hit these guys?

10 yards per pass There is no excuse for posting a number below this. In a game where the 'Noles are favored by 40, this is not a lot to ask.

No interceptions I don't want to see the other team catching any of our passes. That is Jeff Bowden style and we should not be seeing that right now.

6 Yards Per Carry Again, WCU is not a good team. This is a reachable goal.

90% of carries gain 2 or more yards This measures us not getting stuffed. I will hve more on this at a later date.

No fumbles Not fumbles lost, but rather, no fumbles.

No more than 1 Holding Penalty As a unit, I will be happy if we hold this to one.

No more than 1 False Start Penalty There shouldn't be any crowd noise to deal with. These guys have waited a long time to play, let's see that the focus and concentration is there.

No dumb timeouts Again, this would go a long way towards putting Jeff Bowden behind us.

No major injuries This is the major goal.

No face mask penalties Facemask penalties often indicate someone has lazy feet or is out of position. We should not be out of position against WCU.

No more than one pass interference penalty Again, let's play the ball and use good footwork to get into position.

7 Sacks I want to see the defensive line get pressure and FINISH. WCU will throw the ball 50 times in this game. 7 sacks is a 14% sack rate, which is what we need against a team of this caliber. We also want to see a fumble forced due to a blindside QB hit.

No dropped interceptions There will be chances for picks in this game. Make them count.

Cover for the Alumni (-40)

Shutout

50 points scored

I will evaluate our performance Sunday night. We will check how the 'Noles did and use these goals as a benchmark.

Weekend Action

4-2 on the year, +1.80 (Imaginary of course).

Ball State -7 Nate Davis is a legitimate NFL prospect at quarterback for Ball State.

UTEP + 27 Texas should be less than motivated.

Nevada +10.5 Texas Tech is one of my favorite teams to watch. They have no motivation to go to this game in the desert.

Duke +7 Northwestern is the better team. Less people know how not-terrible Duke is.

Maryland -13 (There are some 12.5's available) Maryland Struggled with Delaware last week, but Delaware is probably bettee than MTSU.

BYU -9.5 Washington is horrible. Watch everyone's upset pick get blown out. Again.

Central Michigan +24.5 (Get the hook) People are taking UGA and know nothing about CMU. This line is inflated. LeFevour is legit and this is a look ahead game for this overrated Bulldog squad.

Louisiana Monroe +14 Arkansas does not have the personnel to run their system yet.

Marshall + 21.5 Look ahead game for Wisconsin, as Fresno comes into town next week.

Louisiana Tech +21 Riding the Bulldogs again.

Cincinnati + 21.5 Oklahoma is a really good team. Brian Kelly is a very good coach. I'll take the points.

Pittsburgh -13.5 Pittsburgh lost to Bowling Green, but as Doc Saturday pointed out, they played better than the score indicated. Pitt will beat Buffalo by 21.

Memphis -3 Memphis rolled up 500 yards on Ole Miss in The Grove. They'll have no trouble against Rice. Rice should be a 7 point underdog here, but they aren't because people saw them kill Southern Miss on national TV.

Rice/ Memphis OVER 66 Please. This game will be 42-32, Memphis.

Boston College -7 (Missed the 6.5) BC can limit Dwyer up the middle with their huge defensive tackles. Georgia Tech isn't ready for this game.

BC Under 38 I expect an ugly game here. 23-10, BC.

West Virginia -7.5 This line is an overreaction to last week's ECU win over Virginia Tech. I really like ECU, but not here.

Arizona State -13.5 Stanford allowed tons of yardage against OSU in their opening week. I took Stanford last week and will now fade them, as 'Zona State shouldn't turn the ball over quite as much. The Sun Devils roll them.

Notre Dame -22 San Diego State is atrocious. Notre Dame has a lot of talent. I expect them to score 50 here.

Florida -22.5 Miami is not in the same league as the Gates. UM 14, UF 42.

Wyoming -3 This line should be 7. Since it is now, we're taking Wyoming.

Minnesota +5 I don't understand this line. Oh wait, yes I do: an overreaction to the win last weekend.

Tonight's Action for Entertainment Purposes Only

I'm 3-1 to start the year. That's 75%

Tonight I am going with:

South Carolina -9.5

South Carolina/ Vandy UNDER 41.5

Predicted Score: SC 24, Vanderbilt 10.

FSU Names Christian Ponder as Starting Quarterback (Updated 09/04)

FSU announced that Christian Ponder will make his 1st career start for the Florida State Seminoles. Ponder gained national notoriety for graduating from college in just two years. He is a redshirt sophomore and a native of Colleyville, TX. He was rated as a three star prospect by rivals.com. Ponder had a brief stint in last year's Virginia Tech game, a 40-21 Loss. Ponder played great in leading the 'Noles back after Weatherford was knocked out of the game, but also threw a crippling interception, and had another that was picked off by a defensive lineman who hurdled the Florida State offensive lineman who fell down on the play.

Ponder has consistently wowed coaches with his grasp of the offense, his surprising mobility, and his very impressive strength (375+ LB Bench). He boasts a very good arm and was consistently mentioned as the team leader during spring and summer drills. There are very few, if any, throws that Ponder cannot make. His ability to understand defenses is excellent and his promotion is a welcome relief to those who believed that our playbook was limited by our quarterback's ability. FSU is instantly tougher to defend and to plan for. Teams can no longer sit in two or three vanilla schemes and play the percentages. They will have to break down Ponder's tape and find out his weaknesses. They now have to worry about the quarterback running out of the pocket and making plays with his feet, and with his arm while on the run.

This move probably would not have happened if not for Weatherford's knee injury in the spring. Ponder seized the opportunity to show his skills and did not disappoint. Fisher glowed when he spoke of CP7 (Ponder wears #7).

Ponder also suffered an injury that delayed this call. In a recent practice, he injured his shoulder after throwing some water-logged balls. I wondered if the guy who many speculated was Jimbo's number one choice all along would be too injured to start for FSU. It seems that the coaches wanted to allow as much time as possible for him to heal up (the injury was muscular only; not structural) before naming him the starter.

This is undoubtedly the best decision for the program. It represents a step forward. It represents a realization that we aren't in contention for a MNC, but that with some breaks, continued excellent recruiting, and developing a capable quarterback, we could be sooner than people think (2010). I've often speculated that Bobby Bowden would step in and insist that the safe option start at quarterback, despite promises that head coach in waiting and offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher was in change of the offense. This move shows us that Bobby trusts Jimbo. This is promising because it indicates that Bobby knows Jimbo is in the best position to make the most informed choice. Fueled by comments this summer that seemed to forcefully remind fans that he was still in charge, many had worried that Bowden would try to trump Jimbo. I think the winningest coach in college football history will be rewarded for his acquiescence; FSU will win more games with Ponder than they would have with Weatherford. Penn State will likely win more games than FSU this year. Bowden doesn't need 7-6, he needs 9-3. Ponder isn’t the familiar or safe choice, but he is the best choice; not only for the future of our program, but for this year as well.

This decision also represents hope. FSU fan's haven't had a lot to cheer about in the last three years. A losing record against Non-Duke ACC teams, Back to Back 7-6 seasons, and the looming cloud of possible NCAA sanctions stood to temper FSU's expectations. Opposing fans openly rooted for Weatherford to remain at the helm. Weatherford is a class guy who has always worked his butt off. He rarely if ever blamed his teammates. I profiled his shortcomings in The Weatherford Report and won't say much about that now. Ponder does, however, represent a major upgrade in terms of talent, and a minor upgrade in terms of knowledge of the playbook. He is a diligent worker who has incredible attention to detail. Jimbo commented that he grasps concepts quicker than any quarterback he had ever worked with; high praise for someone who nurtured numerous NFL qb's.

Ponder represents hope for the future as people see his present ability and can imagine what his future performance will be like. In addition to putting the best possible option on the field, we are now set up to have a talented, experienced quarterback playing in his 5th year in 2010, a year where FSU should have a lot of talent and a very manageable schedule. This decision also relieves some pressure from the shoulders of Future 'Nole signal caller E. J. Manuel, the highly touted five-star prospect from Virginia Beach, VA. If Ponder progresses as Jimbo likely believes he will, Manuel won't be pressed into action until 2011 at the earliest, barring injury. Choosing Weatherford would likely have cuased great uncertainty next off-season, as there would be three unknowns entering the season. A successful season from Ponder would put those fears to rest.

Weatherford should still play an important role on this team. Expect him, and not D'Vontrey Richardson to be the backup and for D'vo to run several packages per game, comprising approximately 8-12 out of an average of 65-70 offensive plays. Weatherford makes sense as the backup here because he has a great grasp of the offense. His 33 starts make him the most experienced quarterback in the nation, and there isn't a situation he would be unprepared for. If Ponder were to go down Drew could likely step in and play at a somewhat similar level, especially early in the season since Christian wouldn't have had much game experience and probably wouldn't yet be playing at an elite level. There is no backup quarterback I would rather have than Drew Weatherford. I see him as a college Trent Dilfer, always at the ready and having enough ability to not cripple a team when inserted in the middle of a game. Inserting D'Vo into the game when he has been prepping to run his specific packages (shotgun spread zone-read anybody??) at a high level and not to run the entire offense, wouldn't be as smart as using Drew. Weatherford's experience and knowledge of the game will continue to be a huge asset to the future 'Nole quarterbacks. He can be the extra set of eyes on the sideline that some, including us here at FSUncensored, have argued we lack. In fact, his presence on the sideline, in time, might even allow Jimbo to move back to the press box.

All hope is not lost for Richardson either. While the coaches have called him "the Lebron James of football", a "great, not good, great passer", and "the most athletic quarterback I've ever had", he does have some baggage. D'Vontrey struggled with academic eligibility issues last year and there rumblings about excessive off-the field celebrating. He is also an excellent baseball prospect and could stand to receive up to half a million dollars if he elects to enter next year's baseball draft. Combine the eligibility issues with the temptation of Major League Ba$eball, and it's easy to see why the coaches would be uneasy about committing to a guy who just now fully committed to football. I hope D'vontrey keeps his grades in order, forgets about baseball (for now), and continues to focus solely on football with the same intensity and determination he showed this spring. Few will question that his upside is higher than that of Christian, but it is easy to see how his uncertain future could be enough to sway the coaches to Ponder, a capable athlete with an incredible grasp of the offense. D'Vo will be expected to run his 8-12 plays per game and present a difficult change of pace for the defense. I hate to make a comparisons to establishes superstars, but his playing style reminds me a lot of Donovan McNabb when he was at Syracuse. If he continues to improve like he did this summer, keeps his grades high, and doesn't flirt with baseball, expect him to be right back in the mix of things in fall 2009.

What to look for from Ponder this year? First, don't look for any drop off when it comes to on-field composure. Ponder gained his first real game experience in Blacksburg at Virginia Tech and looked solid. Of the three quarterbacks, Ponder has the best grasp of the offense from a knowledge standpoint. I expect for Jimbo to eventually give him more checks and on-field audible power than he did with Weatherford, in part because of his ability to think on the fly, and in part because a greater number of options are now available for our offense as a result of Ponder's ability. I am truly amazed that a redshirt sophomore has a greater grasp of the offense than a redshirt senior. This is not a knock on Weatherford, but rather a testament to Ponder's ability. Temper your enthusiasm a bit though; we don't have Rainman under center; both QB's have been in Jimbo's offense for an equal amount of time.

Look for more sprint-stretch plays, and boots off of those plays. CP7 doesn't run 4.5 (D'Vo), but he represents a huge upgrade in terms of mobility. Teams must now respect not only his scrambling ability when the play breaks down, but also must guard against the threat of designed runs. While the reports on our young offensive line are very encouraging when it comes to run-blocking, they are less than encouraging when it comes to pass protection. Certainly that factored into Jimbo's decision as well. I would be shocked if we didn't see an immediate increase in the number of pass plays that involve a re-located pocket (sprint/ roll-outs); taking advantage of our offensive line's athleticism and minimizing their weaknesses (strength).

FSU opponents are also on notice that the area outside the hash marks, 10-20 yards deep is now in play. Ponder's cross-field throw over the short-set defender and in front of the jump-ball anticipating safety was a thing of beauty. The more options that a defense must consider, the less aggressive they can be. Ponder will make defenses defend the entire field. With our excellent receiving corps, easily the best in the ACC, and one of the best nationally, allowing them to run all areas of the field and having the defense reasonably believe that the ball will be delivered to them at any point is a very good thing for Seminole Nation and a very bad thing for opposing defenses. While some opposing fans mocked our quarterbacks via sarcastically rooting for them, I seriously doubt they will continue to do so.

There will be some growing pains along the way. While Drew's 33 start's were not enough to fend off the hard charging Ponder, experience is an asset that nobody can deny. Ponder does not yet have experience. Luckily, FSU faces some very bad teams early this season. In their first 5 games, FSU faces only 2-3 teams with a legitimate chance at a bowl. This should provide Ponder with game experience before facing the likes of Virginia Tech and Clemson.

In terms of talent, experience, and attitude (and what else is there), FSU's quarterback situation is easily the best we've had in the past 5 years. Starting Christian Ponder, insuring him with Drew Weatherford, Redshirting E.J. Manuel, while threatening defense with D'Vontrey Richardson as he continues to grow is the best possible move these coaches could have made; both for 2008 and the foreseeable future.


Other Writers React to the News:

• Andrew Carter Reacted. 5 times. This guy is a beast of a writer.

• Scalp'Em didn't love the decision. That said, CC supports it and will always root for whoever is under center.
  

• Chantrant praised the call for its correctness. They also had high praise for Jimbo making the decision.

• TomahawkNation liked the call a lot but called it bittersweet.
  

• Brian Landman praised Christian for his arm and his surpsiring speed. I guess its surprising because he is white? I kidd, I kidd.
  

Week 1 Poll

Rank	Team	Last Week	Comment
1	USC	3	The team appears to be hitting on all cylinders.
2	Oklahoma	2	Looked okay, not great.
3	Florida	4	The offense finally turned it on. This team has incredible speed. Barring hurricane Hannah putting a damper on things, they should name their score against Miami.
4	Ohio State	1	Their defense is still loaded, the offensive line looks great, two wideouts on the biletnikof list, and an experienced senior be. Oh yeah, the best running back in the country is injured. Tressel is treating this with Saban gloves. Be wary.
5	Georgia	5	Stafford looked erratic in their win over Georgia Southern. They suffered another huge injury. Jeff Owens (one of it not the top rated DT prospect in the NFL Draft) tore his cal. By my count, Georgia lost its best offensive and defensive lineman in the past 2 weeks.
6	Missouri	6	This offense is ridiculous, but the pass defense is a cause for concern.
7	LSU	12	Sometimes I forget how dominant their lines are. Les isn't afraid to pound teams. I worry about their DB's and their QB's are still unproven.
8	West Virginia	9	Passing offense looked very good against FCS opponent. They will have a minor test with ECU this weekend.
9	Texas	10	Texas got the job done against FAU. I didn't watch this game.
10	South Florida	11	Should pound UCF in a slight look ahead game (Kansas)
11	Alabama	25	Terrance Cody is an NFL player wearing a college uniform. 11 is probably too high, but they were very impressive and don't face a real test for a while.
12	Texas Tech	7	This offense should operate at an all-time great level. Interesting test this weekend at Nevada. Leach needs to avoid getting trapped in desert.
13	South Carolina	15	The defense looked amazing. They played NC State. The offense was horrible. They should crush Vanderbilt Thursday.
14	BYU	16	Veteran, experienced team of 22 year olds? Yes please.
15	Notre Dame	18	A lot of talent that should come together. Questions about the secondary linger. If they don't go 300 passing and 200 rushing against hapless SDSU, I'm dropping them
16	Wisconsin	19	They did what they were supposed to do against Akron, the real text comes in two weeks.
17	California	23	Proved explosive in win over Michigan State. I do have some concerns over their defense. With Oregon's QB situation unsettled, this is my #2 Pac 10 team.
18	Oregon	17	After losing their starter to a knee injury, their backup went down with a concussion. Chip Kelley once again proved he is the best assistant coach in America as Oregon rolled up several hundred rushing yards while pounding Washington. The Huskies knew what was coming and still couldn't stop it. Oregon's secondary is outstanding
19	Auburn	13	The passing offense was horrid. The defense and running game were excellent. By looking at the box score, you'd never know they have a new offense.
20	Penn State	20	They rolled Coastal Carolina and should probably do the same to Oregon State, who lost their entire front 7 from 2007.
21	Utah	22	See BYU. Experienced QB. Their upset of Michigan was ugly and disappointing to those who thought their offense would click more than it did. A win in the big house, however, is still a road win in front of 100K+
22	Arizona State	24	They are good everywhere except offensive line. Their Oline is horrid.
23	Fresno State	NR	They throttled Fresno State. Well coached with good athletes.
24	Tennessee	14	A disappointing effort at UCLA. That said, it was a west coast road trip. People will underrate them going forward, maybe justifiably so.
25	Oklahoma State	NR	Oklahoma State went on the road to play a BCS team, albeit a horrible one in Washington State. They throttled them. I like to see offenses that click early. Zach Robinson is a very good player and Oklahoma State has the look of the best 4th-place team the BXII South has ever seen
	Dropped Out
	Clemson	8	Pathetic effort. Their offensive linemen are horrible and make FSU's 2006 and 2007 lines look decent.
	Virginia Tech	21	Proving once again that special teams can put you over the top, but won't put you up the wall to get over the top.

Recapping the weekend, for entertainment purposes only

Stanford +3.5 Rushes for 210 yards on 48 carries and wins 36-28.

Wake Forest/ Baylor UNDER 50.5 41-13 is 54, Loss.

South Carolina -13.5, held abysmal NC State to 138 total yards and won 34-0. I expected the shutout. I didn't expect such an ugly 34 points.

Troy/ MTSU U53.5 31-17 is 48, and that gets the job done as neither team tallies 300 yards.

I didn't post weekend action, but did go 3-1 on Thursday before heading to the Georgia Dome to see 'Bama dismantle the Tigers.

Some interesting notes from around the nation:

• Virginia Tech has no playmakers. I already profiled that when I broke down the ACC's returning offensive players.
• Mississippi State is ridiculously bad. Now that they are without their best player (Cheney), this team could be an auto-fade.
  
• Oklahoma State's offense clicked early and often. Credit Mike Gundy for having these guys running on all cylinders from the word "go."
  
• Ole Miss allowed almost 500 yards to Memphis, at home, in a win.
  
• Oregon State's front 7 is ridiculously bad. They travel to Penn State this weekend.
• Ball State has a legit NFL QB and will give MAC teams fits this year.
  
• Maryland struggled with Deleware, a I-AA team. Deleware is MUCH better than most know.
  

Florida State still has not named a starter at QB.
I'm actually okay with that, since it means that Drew Weatherford is not the starter for one more day.

Thoughts on Wake Forest @ Baylor:

Last night I watched the Wake Forest game with great interest. The Deac's have a 2-game winning streak over FSU. They won a close game in Winston-Salem last year, and helped to usher Jeff Bowden out the door by winning in Tallahassee in 2006, 30-0.

I've been pretty vocal about not believing in Wake's offense. I do think their defense will be pretty good, considering they have a lot of senior starters and some NFL talent (for once).

Last night, however, I was underwhelmed by Wake's offensive attack. Here are my observations.

1. Skinner is an accurate passer.

2. Baylor seemed very concerned with the deep ball, and skinner picked them apart. He threw 36 times for 220 yards. That is not very impressive. Baylor needed to dare him to beat them deep. It was very evident that he would repeatedly take 5 yard completion after 5 yard completion if they gave it to him, which they did.

3. The margin of victory wasn't really indicative of Wake's play, as it was Baylor's ineptness.

3. Baylor committed 2 turnovers where Wake basically did nothing. First, Alphonso Smith picks off a ball that literally hits off the wideout's hands (first), and helmet (second), before Smith picked it. Wake didn't force that turnover. They didn't bait him into a bad throw or pressure him into a poor pass. The wideout just gave a pathetic effort on a very easy catch. This was in Baylor's zone, and led to a Wake score.

Second, Baylor's qb took a snap inside his 15 yard line, rolled left, and DROPPED THE BALL, WITHOUT BEING TOUCHED! Again, the ball rolled to Wake. Please explain me how wake forced that turnover.

5. Wake's running game really struggled. Adams and Pendergrass (their main running game), had 28 carries for 71 yards. That is bad. Wake's offensive line really struggled in rub blocking. Baylor's front 7 is Syracuse bad, and Wake struggled to block them, which is consistent with what we've been hearing out of Wake camp.

Their overall running numbers were really inflated because Baylor couldn't tackle a speedster on a 55 yard run.

6. Wake pass protected pretty well. Baylor has no threats off the edge, but nevertheless, give Wake's guys credit for keeping Skinner clean.

7. I hate to keep harping on this, but Baylor's plan was to not get embarassed (didn't work because of their ridiculous turnovers in their own zone). They let Wake have almost everything short.

8. Wake had ONE passing play of more than 15 yards. Now, as I noted above, Baylor sat back in cover three a lot, but these Wide Receivers are not impressive, even against Baylor.

9. Wake can play some defense. They tackled well for the most part, even though Baylor's second half QB was very fast.

10. This game is deceiving because it was extremely choppy. Baylor had FIVE turnovers (3 fumbles lost and 2 picks). Wake did force 2 of these, but the other three are stuff that top 50 teams don't do on a consistent basis.

These play-by-play entries tell a good story:

4th-8, Bay22 14:16 D. Epperson punt to the Baylor 36, no return.

COMMENT: Baylor's first went 14 yards.

Wake Forest - 11:23
1st-10, Wake38 11:23 J. Adams rushed to the left for 2 yard gain
2nd-8, Wake40 10:53 R. Skinner incomplete pass to the left
3rd-8, Wake40 10:44 R. Skinner passed to M. Williams to the right for 15 yard gain
1st-10, Bay45 10:29 J. Adams rushed up the middle for 2 yard gain
2nd-8, Bay43 9:54 R. Skinner passed to M. Williams to the right for 9 yard gain
1st-10, Bay34 9:41 D. Boldin rushed to the right for 8 yard gain
2nd-2, Bay26 9:14 J. Adams rushed up the middle for 3 yard gain
1st-10, Bay23 8:59 R. Skinner passed to D. Boldin down the middle for 4 yard gain
2nd-6, Bay19 8:33 R. Skinner passed to D. Boldin to the left for 3 yard gain
3rd-3, Bay16 7:55 J. Adams rushed to the right for 3 yard gain
1st-10, Bay13 7:37 J. Adams rushed up the middle for 1 yard gain
2nd-9, Bay12 7:05 R. Skinner passed to C. Brinkman down the middle for 12 yard touchdown. S. Swank made PAT

COMMENT: Wake's drive starts on Baylor's 36. Baylor plays soft, and Wake drives for a touchdown with 11 plays, only one of which went 10+ yards. No pressure applied. Soft zone heavy.

3rd-9, Bay41 4:11 A. Smith intercepted K. Freeman for 1 yard
Wake Forest - 4:06
1st-10, Bay48 4:06 B. Pendergrass rushed to the left for 1 yard loss
2nd-11, Bay49 3:35 R. Skinner rushed to the right for 4 yard gain
3rd-7, Bay45 2:52 R. Skinner passed to M. Williams to the right for 7 yard gain
1st-10, Bay38 2:25 R. Skinner rushed up the middle for 7 yard loss. R. Skinner fumbled. B. Pendergrass recovered fumble
2nd-17, Bay45 1:50 R. Skinner rushed to the right for 9 yard gain
3rd-8, Bay36 1:17 R. Skinner passed to B. Wooster to the right for 7 yard gain
4th-1, Bay29 1:10 B. Pendergrass rushed up the middle for 4 yard gain
1st-10, Bay25 0:52 R. Skinner passed to D. Boldin to the left for 5 yard gain
2nd-5, Bay20 0:20 R. Skinner passed to B. Wooster down the middle for 14 yard gain
2nd Quarter
Wake Forest continued
1st-6, Bay6 15:00 B. Pendergrass rushed to the right for 3 yard gain
2nd-3, Bay3 14:27 B. Pendergrass rushed to the left for 3 yard touchdown. S. Swank made PAT

COMMENT: This interception is the one I commented about above. Wake didn't do shit to get the pick, the wideout literally let it hit him in both hands. Again, wake goes 11 plays, with only one being more than 10 yards. Baylor didn't even attempt to challenge Wake's wideouts.

Baylor - 8:50
1st-10, Bay4 8:50 J. Finley rushed up the middle for 7 yard gain
2nd-3, Bay11 8:14 R. Griffin rushed up the middle for no gain. R. Griffin fumbled. H. Haynes recovered fumble
Wake Forest - 8:08
1st-10, Bay11 8:08 B. Pendergrass rushed up the middle for 3 yard gain
2nd-7, Bay8 7:43 R. Skinner passed to C. Brinkman down the middle for 8 yard touchdown. S. Swank made PAT

COMMENT: Griffin was not touched on the fumble. He literally took the snap, took 2 steps left, and dropped the ball. Wake takes over at Baylor's 11. 14 points off of turnovers they had no hand in forcing. Pure Dominance ;)

Wake Forest - 7:36
Wake kicked off, M. Baker returned kickoff for 9 yards. M. Baker fumbled. J. La Mar recovered fumble
COMMENT: Baylor fumbles the kickoff. They look inept. Wake takes over on Baylor's 17.

Guys, please watch this game for yourselves before passing judgment on Wake. I am not buying into this team yet. We can dominate their wideouts, and they will struggle to block us, even though we are extremely thin at DT. There is no way we sit in cover three all day and let Skinner filet us in 5 yard chunks. In the words of some TV Infomercials, "I'm still skeptical."

How did Georgia deal with offensive line uncertainty heading into 2007?

kk'Nole fans everywhere are scared stiff about the inexperienced offensive line. I've repeatedly said that the line will be better this year than last year, since these players give a lot more effort and fit his system better.

Then I remembered that Georgia had a very inexperienced offensive line going into last year. I read Dawgsports.com regularly. Dawgsports provides some of the best SEC and Georgia analysis. I emailed T. Kyle King, the creator of DawgSports, and asked him if he would answer some questions about UGA's offensive line prospects heading into last year. Even though I am down on Georgia this year, compared to most, T. Kyle agreed. Our conversation follows. A big thanks to T. Kyle and Dawgsports. Our conversation follows. I'll add my thoughts later.

Going into the 2007 season, was the offensive line the biggest concern on the mind of Georgia fans?

Without question. Both veterans were trying out new positions, as guards Fernando Velasco and Chester Adams were moved to center and right tackle, respectively. Otherwise, it was a lot of new faces, with a new position coach leading them, to boot.

The one apparent positive to the situation was the fact that Stacy Searels, a successful and respected offensive line coach from LSU, didn’t have to break his charges of habits learned under his predecessor. Since Searels took over an inexperienced line, he was able to implement his system from the outset, which actually may have eased the coaching transition.

What was the makeup of UGA’s line on opening day 2007, experience wise?

Going into the season, did you think they fit your system well?

Were they highly touted coming out of high school?

Due to the change in position coaches as well as personnel, Bulldog Nation was in “wait and see” mode regarding the players’ suitability for the system Searels brought with him from Baton Rouge, although his record with the Bayou Bengals (who finished first in the SEC in total offense and in scoring offense in 2006) gave fans cause for hope.

The Bulldogs’ opening day lineup against Oklahoma State consisted of true freshman Trinton Sturdivant at left tackle, redshirt freshman Chris Davis at left guard, senior Fernando Velasco at center, junior Scott Haverkamp at right guard, and senior Chester Adams at right tackle.

Both players on the left side of the line were making their first career starts, although both started all 13 games at their positions last year. Velasco came in with 13 consecutive starts at split guard under his belt and started 13 more at center. Adams, who finished with 23 total starts for his career, started all but one game at tackle last season; he was relieved for the Western Carolina game by true freshman Clint Boling, who took over at right guard for the remainder of the fall. Boling’s 11 straight starts also represent his entire career on the first team.

Sturdivant came out of high school as a USA Today All-USA Second Team selection and Scout.com’s No. 18 offensive tackle in the country. Davis was an Atlanta Journal-Constitution All-State Honorable Mention and a member of Rivals.com’s Georgia Top 50. Velasco was one of the Journal-Constitution’s Georgia Top 50. Haverkamp came out of Silver Lake, Kans., as a two-time All-Mideast League selection. Adams was rated as Rivals.com’s No. 32 offensive tackle nationally and Boling was among the Journal-Constitution’s Georgia Top 50. In short, all were solid players, but only Sturdivant and Adams were highly touted nationally.

How did UGA end up so young along the offensive line to start the 2007 season?

Fortunately, it was not a situation such as that which occurred in 2003, when too many consecutive recruiting classes which neglected to include an adequate number of offensive linemen caught up to the Bulldogs. The 2007 line lacked starting experience in part because the 2006 line had a great deal of it.

The 2006 Georgia line featured 13-game starters Ken Shackleford at split tackle and Nick Jones at center, as well as 11-game starter Daniel Inman at tight tackle and four-game starter Michael Turner at tight guard and tight tackle. All four were seniors.

Georgia lost depth due to a variety of circumstances which kept some players off the field or resulted in their departure from the team, but the Bulldogs signed seven offensive linemen in 2003, two in 2004, one in 2005, six in 2006, eight in 2007, and three in 2008. Obviously, in retrospect, it would have been nice to have signed a few more linemen in the 2004 and 2005 classes (who were in their fourth and third years with the program, respectively, in 2007), but the commitment to signing linemen shown in signing six or more of them in three of the last six recruiting classes is evident.

Many in the media claim that UGA had a very good offensive line last year. I’m sure those same pundits weren’t predicting that at the beginning of the season. What are your thoughts on the 2007 Bulldogs line? What does their performance say about the players who left from 2006?

With all due respect to former Georgia offensive coordinator Neil Callaway, the lesson of the 2007 Bulldog line is that coaching matters a great deal. Stacy Searels took a group of players who had considerable talent but scant experience and molded them into a functioning unit.

I in no way wish to bash Callaway, who, by all accounts, is a good man and a good coach, but I believe the Bulldogs traded up when he got the UAB head coaching job. What the performance of the 2007 line says about such 2006 stalwarts as Inman, Jones, Shackleford, and Turner is that last year’s offensive line was better coached.

Georgia started off the season hosting Oklahoma State and South Carolina (whose defense was loaded last year before being decimated by injuries). Did the offensive line struggle early on? Why or why not? How difficult was it for them to start off against two pretty decent teams?

The first two weeks of last season proved the axiom that things are never as good as they seem and things are never as bad as they seem. Against the Cowboys, Georgia held the ball for 36:29, converted seven of 15 third downs, and generated 376 yards of total offense. Although the Bulldogs managed to outgain the Gamecocks 341-314 the following week, the Red and Black were held to 3-of-18 on third down and the South Carolina defense was in the backfield all night, blowing up plays with regularity.

While watching the Oklahoma State game, you never would have known that none of Georgia’s offensive linemen had previous starting experience at their respective positions, but the South Carolina game made their inexperience abundantly clear. Of course, the Cowboys’ strength was on offense and the Gamecocks’ strength was on defense, so it figured that the second game would have been the one that exposed the weaknesses on the Georgia offensive front. Accordingly, the Bulldogs’ struggles came early, but not immediately.

When did they finally click? Can you tie this to an event, a game, or a series of games (possibly against inferior competition)? Do you think they put it all together earlier if they had, say, two I-AA opponents to open the season against?

I don’t know that there was a single specific point in the season at which the offensive line put it together so much as there was a point in the season at which the offense as a whole put it all together. The Tennessee game (a 35-14 loss in Knoxville), which was by far the Bulldogs’ worst performance of the season and arguably their worst of the Mark Richt era, wasn’t so much a problem of inexperience as it was a lack of preparedness and intensity. The Volunteers simply were ready for everything Georgia had to offer, which was a triumph of game-planning and execution rather than a simple act of overwhelming underclassmen.

Senior leadership is a cliché, but the presence of an upperclassman in the middle of the line definitely provided stability and helped the line come together. However, the entire offense had to mature, which was not always a function of youth; the largest spark by far came from a redshirt freshman, Knowshon Moreno.

If pressed to pinpoint an instant at which the entire offense gelled, I would point to the timeout during which the booth officials reviewed a play in the Ole Miss game. At that point, the team got into a rhythm . . . literally. The music (though not the lyrics) to Soulja Boy’s “Crank That” was played over the stadium loudspeakers, and, when the cameras caught Moreno and some of his teammates performing the accompanying dance on the sidelines---a dance which was being performed in the stands by the students and younger alumni, and which was taken up by some of the defensive players on the field awaiting the verdict from the booth---the energy in Sanford Stadium went to a new level and what had been a nip-and-tuck contest turned into a rout as Georgia scored the last 28 points on the way to a 45-17 blowout.

The numbers bear that out: Georgia was held in the ballpark of 130 to 150 rushing yards in each of the Red and Black’s first four games before exploding for 328 against the Rebels. After that, aside from an uncharacteristically poor effort in Knoxville in every phase of the contest, the Bulldogs tended to be more in the range of 180 to 200 yards per game on the ground.

I definitely don’t believe that facing an easier early-season slate would have caused Georgia to put it together faster. The sense of urgency that accompanied the knowledge that the team would be facing a legitimate opening opponent in Oklahoma State caused the team to become a cohesive unit sooner rather than later. My son and I were fortunate enough to be given a tour of the Georgia weight room in May 2007 and some of the players I saw working out there were wearing “Georgia v. Oklahoma State September 1, 2007” T-shirts. I would be willing to wager that none of the players are wearing “Georgia v. Georgia Southern August 30, 2008” T-shirts today.

Although there were growing pains in 2007, the low points were nothing like those experienced in 2006, in which the Bulldogs lost four games in five weeks at midseason after opening against Western Kentucky and playing UAB in the season’s second home game. Similarly rapid development was evident in the previous seasons of the Mark Richt era, in which the Red and Black went to three SEC championship games and two Sugar Bowls in 2002, 2003, and 2005 (when Georgia opened against Clemson twice and Boise State once).

Look at it this way . . . if playing inferior competition truly helped a team to improve, then why did Georgia manage 20 points and 368 yards on 66 plays against Vanderbilt yet rack up 42 points and 413 yards on 62 snaps against Florida?

T. Kyle King

Dawg Sports

http://www.dawgsports.com

Quick hitters for this weekend

I'll have more tonight or tomorrow morning,

but quickly for tonight:

Stanford +3.5

Wake Forest/ Baylor UNDER 50.5

South Carolina -13.5 (Really wanted 13, ugh)

Troy/ MTSU U53.5

Also, I will Tivo the Wake game and give a review of their team later on.

Update on the missing 5 and thoughts about the new NCAA rules.

MIA

• Mincey (important DT), Graham (possible TE contributor), and Dunham (H-Back type) are still not enrolled at FSU. Their transcripts have not been approved at this point. Today was the first day of classes. I am about 99% sure that they will not participate in FSU football this year. Let's break down the impact:
• Mincey was projected to be a starter, he was very talented. I am very disappointed that he could not meet FSU's easy standards. I have known many people who don't attend class, don't have access to tutors, who party daily, and keep more than a 2.75 GPA. From a football fan angle, we need to have programs that can get these type kids into very easy classes. A few kids receiving watered down degrees every year doesn't damage my degree in my opinion.
• UPDATE: Mincey made the grades and is back! Retaining Mincey while losing Graham & Dunham (see below) is the best possible thing that could happen.
  
• Graham was a trouble maker and a liability. I am glad he is no longer on the team. He had decent, but not spectacular talent. This will free up another scholarship. I will again restate my view on thinning our roster. If you are not poised to make a solid contribution by the time you are a junior because of your talent or work ethic, and not due to a position logjam, I want to cut you.
  
• Dunham was a total bust. A relic of the Nepotism Era, Dunham's progress consistently disappointed observers. This is a good loss.
• Jermaine Thomas returned to practice today after an academic related scare. This was not related to cheating and was a qualifications issue. This is an important break for FSU.

New Rules

• The play clock will now start immediately once the ball is blown dead as opposed to when the referee blew the play ready. The clock consists of 40 seconds, not 25. Also, except within 2 minutes, when the player runs out of bounds, the clock will start upon the reset of the ball and not the snap.
  
• Impact: Game play will be more consistent across the conferences. I expect there to be about 5 fewer plays per game. I've based this off of conversations with other college football guys. If we see 64 plays per game instead of 72, expect scoring to be down some. Totals players should take note. I really think this favors teams leading at the end of the game, since the clock will run immediately instead of waiting for the referee to spot the ball.
  

• The NCAA clarified the rules on chop blocking in an attempt to protect players.
• Impact: Good. This is absolutely a direct result of the ridiculous block that Auburn laid on Glen Dorsey of LSU.
• FSU Impact: this could hurt FSU and similarly Trickett- styled lines since they frequently employ the cut block. Cut blocks sometimes border on chop blocks.
  

Must FSU Release the NOA? A response to Bianchi.

The Orlando Sentinel's Mike Bianchi slammed FSU for not releasing the Notice of Allegations.

Florida is governed by the Government in the Sunshine Law.

Let's have a little Q & A.

Q. What is a public record?
A. The Florida Supreme Court has determined that public records are all materials made or received by an agency in connection with official business which are used to perpetuate, communicate or formalize knowledge. They are not limited to traditional written documents. Tapes, photographs, films and sound recordings are also considered public records subject to inspection unless a statutory exemption exists.

Q. Does the Notice of Allegations from the NCAA to FSU qualify as a public record?
A. Well, the document is a material, which was received, by an agency (FSU), in connection with official business, which was used to perpetuate, communicate, and formalize knowledge. The Notice of Allegations does qualify as a public record.

Q. When does a document sent to a public agency become a public document?
A. As soon as a document is received by a public agency, it becomes a public record, unless there is a legislatively created exemption which makes it confidential and not subject to disclosure.

So the document is a public record upon receipt. It looks like Florida Law requires FSU to release the documents. At this point, they have denied those requests.

Q. Does an agency have to explain why it denies access to public records?
A. A custodian of a public record who contends that the record or part of a record is exempt from inspection must state the basis for that exemption, including the statutory citation. Additionally, when asked, the custodian must state in writing the reasons for concluding the record is exempt.

FSU does have the right to refuse to release the documents if they have a good faith basis that the requested information falls under an exemption, whether statutorily or judicially created. They have to specify which exemption they believe the record falls under. They also have to disclose why they believe the record falls under the exemption

What exemption is FSU citing? Bianchi's story fails to disclose the specific exemption. This is poor journalism by him. He most likely knows what exemption FSU cited when they denied his request. They would have responded to the attorney that represents the Orlando Sentinel. By failing to include the citation to the authority cited by FSU, Bianchi appears to be hiding something as well. His article is riddled with assumptions that may or may not be true.

UPDATE: Andrew Carter provided the specific exemption:

“Because this matter remains an ongoing confidential investigation under Section 1012,91, Florida Statutes, no further comment or provision of records maintained for the purposes of the investigation is anticipated until the investigation is concluded. Further, many of the records involved, including the June 10 correspondence from the NCAA [the NOA] that has become a record maintained by the University, contains confidential and exempt personally identifiable student education records and reports information pursuant to Section 1002.22(3)(d), Florida Statutes, which gives students a right of privacy ‘in their records. The federal Family Educational Rights and Privacy Act (FERPA), 20 U.S.C. § 1232g, also protects the privacy of student education records.”

Thanks to Andrew for providing that. FSU is fully within its rights to claim this exception. If someone believes they have wrongly claimed the exception, they should challenge it in a court of law and the judge will decide whether the documents fall under the exception. To my knowledge, nobody has sued FSU over this matter yet. If this matter was really as cut and dry as many in the media make it out to be, someone would have sued months ago, the case would already have been decided, and this would be a non issue. Since the case has not been decided, it seems as if there is some uncertainty. FSU chose to employ this legal strategy, for whatever reason, and they will continue to maintain their stance until someone challenges them in a Florida court.

Bianchi's slant on the situation, however, isn't relevant to the issue of whether FSU is rightfully withholding the documents. While I don't have the specific citation they are claiming, the general idea is that FSU is not releasing the documents because they believe the documents contain protected student information. Some student information is protected under privacy laws. Under Florida Law, agencies are not required to create new reports or information, however An agency that claims an exception based on student privacy, is probably under a duty to release the information in a non-intrusive form. The commonly accepted practice by universities is to release the information with student names and identifying information redacted. FSU has promised to release the information once they file their revised response to the NCAA. The estimated date of release, then, is somewhere around September 12th. This battle could end up in court if the parties requesting the information want to press the issue. It is unlikely, however, that their issue would be decided by a court before September 12th, so their best strategy at this point is to wait 'till the 12th. Also, there is no guarantee that FSU will be forced to turnover the documents. A judge could easily side with the 'Noles and agree that the documents fall within the claimed exemption.

Q. What are the possible downsides to FSU's tactics?
A. Plenty. Obviously, when you fight the media, you will lose the public relations battle. The "taxpayers deserve their information" argument is very powerful and everyone identifies as a taxpayer. FSU's public relations has been horrible in the past few years and the administration is increasingly adopting an anti-media stance. From closing practices, to vague injury reports (upper body injury), and now this. Whether FSU would win in court is debatable. That they are losing in the court of public opinion, is not.

If someone does take FSU to court over this and win, FSU could be in some trouble. FSU could be ordered to produce the documents at their own expense (usually the requesting party must pay) and pay the requesting party's attorneys fees and court costs. If the withholding of the documents is found to be willful, the court could impose a civil penalty and possibly charge the presiding official with a crime.

Q. Why doesn't the Sentinel make the NCAA produce the documents?
A. Despite how they are sometimes portrayed, the NCAA is not a governmental organization. They do not fall under the jurisdiction of Florida's Sunshine Laws. As a private organization, it would be almost impossible to make the NCAA turn over the documents.

If you have any other questions about FSU's sunshine laws, post them in the comments section and I will attempt to answer them.

The 5 Missing guys...

As you may know, FSU is missing 5 guys from practice for Non-Injury reasons. Thankfully there have been no serious injuries to date, in stark contrast to the 'Noles recent past. That said, there are 5 guys who are not in camp. I'll quickly go over each of them to let everyone know what their status is.

Tavarres Pressley, RB. Pressley was the #2 rated JUCO back this past year. He has had a lot of problems qualifying. While I usually don't like the chances of JUCO kids getting in, Pressley did say that he got his qualifying grade from my summer course. The problem is that his transcript is apparently mixed up in the transcripts of all the other students. I''d really prefer there was some fast-tracking available for these kids. His transcript was help up for 2 weeks but now it appears Jeff Cameron is reporting that Pressley is in, which was confirmed by FSU's SI office. This is excellent news. He won't be able to wear pads for 5 days due to the NCAA acclimation process (helmet and shorts for 3 days, shells for 2).

He is a good runner with solid hands and excellent vision. A little over 6 foot and 210-215ish. Remember that running back is a position that doesn't require much practice. I expect him to take some carries from Antone, offer FSU another option at TB, and improve FSU's depth. Pressley isn't a burner, but he does get good separation. He looks like he can be a productive back. This is especially important considering the lack of depth at the position and the Jermaine Thomas situation, discussed below.

Justin Mincey is an excellent defensive tackle prospect who was a music appreciator (will miss first 3 games) and had to take some classes this summer at TCC to stay eligible. FSU really needs him for the Wake Forest game. Some considered him to be the best interior defensive lineman on the team in the Spring. I never expect a kid who couldn't hack it academically at Florida State and had to cheat on an Online Music History Appreciation exam to be able to go and make a good grade at community college in the summer and return to the roster. Don't expect him back, but be pleasantly surprised if he is. With the disinformation approach that FSU athletics now employs, their silence on the matter is disheartening. We really need Moses McCray to step it up and get fully healthy.

Matt Dunham, H-Back/ TE/ RB. Dunham is a Junior hybrid H-Back/ TE, and at this point in his career, he has not shown much promise despite being very highly ranked. Once again, the same rule applies: I never expect a kid who couldn't hack it academically at Florida State to be able to go and make a good grade at community college in the summer and return to the roster. Personally, I hope he doesn't make it back. He wouldn't contribute much this season, and it clears up a scholarship we can use on a player that the new administration actually wants.

Charlie Graham, TE, Jr. Graham is actually a promising TE who would be a junior this year. Graham has been in and out of trouble throughout his 2 year career at FSU. He was involved in a gun discharge incident over the summer. He also has to take classes at TCC this summer to get back on the team. Troubled kid, decent but not great talent, not expected to be a starter even if he had remained on the team. Let's apply the rule: I never expect a kid who couldn't hack it academically at Florida State to be able to go and make a good grade at community college in the summer and return to the roster. FSU hasn't had an arrest in almost 4 months and personally I hope that he doesn't make it back. Like Mincey and Dunham, his status is in limbo pending TCC's grades and registrar approval.

Jermaine Thomas, RB, fr. Thomas is a highly touted prospect. He practiced with FSU for a week but is now not practicing with the team. What is up? Academics. Something from his academic resume was flagged or reviewed. Most expect him back on the team and I wouldn't worry about this kid yet. He has the best chance to make it back out of the 4 still out there.

Scalper's Top 25: 08/18/08

The only changes I made were based on injuries or practice reports.

Rank	Team	Last Week	Comment
1	Ohio State	1	Defense returns 10 of 11 starters (several projected 1st rounders), Top rated QB in the big 10, Very good offensive line, Best RB in the country by a long shot (KNOshon it's not Moreno), and they actually out gained LSU in the bowl game last year. One of the only defenses in the country with the speed to hang with UF.
2	Oklahoma	4	Not many questions about this team. If you return elite talent and don't have major questions, I'll rank you high.
3	USC	3	The Sanchez injury doesn't appear to be serious.
4	Florida	2	Punted less than 3 times per game last year. Most talented team in the country. Best offense in the country, with both Tebow and the Offense vying to be the best in in football history, respectively. Will have far and away the most improved defense in the nation. They've been stopped with a healthy Tim Tebow only once (Auburn last year.) Mounting injury concerns to a starter in their secondary drop them 2 spots, as does News that percy Harvin is yet to complete a practice. Losing All SEC TE Cornelius Ingram for the year hurts.
5	Georgia	5	Just watch. Last year's road performances: beat Vanderbilt 20-17, beat Alabama 26-23 (OT), lost @ Tennessee 35-14. Still feeling confident? Their best wins: beat Auburn @ home, beat Florida with a statuesque Tebow, beat Hawaii. Other Losses: South Carolina held them under 300 yards in Athens. If they beat good teams at full strength, they'll move up. They also lost one of their four best players in Stud LT Studivant.
6	Missouri	7	The addition of DE Brian Coulter moves them up a spot.
7	Texas Tech	6	Leach is one of the best coaches in football and this offense will score 50+ per game. The defense needs to be above average in the conference and they will.
8	Clemson	8	Losing DT Jackson hurts some. The reports are they the skill position players look great but the questions remain along the offensive line. DE Bowers has impressed so far.
9	West Virginia	9	I have a bad feeling about this team. Defensive losses could doom them. The graduation loss of Darius Reynauld (WR) stings
10	Texas	11	Will Muschamp will improve the defense, can Greg Davis not drive soon nation nutty?
11	South Florida	10	Hearing good things out of USF camp
12	LSU	13	Both Auburn and LSU could rise quickly once I see their QB play.
13	Auburn	12	The defense should be nasty, but they did just lose a starting corner.
14	Tennessee	15	Great offensive line play and encouraging reports on the defense move UT up a spot
15	South Carolina	14	Amazing defense now healthy and Stephen Garcia's suspension was lifted hours ago. Garcia was injured last week and that will hurt their development.
16	BYU	16	Veteran, experienced team of 22 yearolds? Yes please.
17	Oregon	18	This team has a very good defense, a solid offensive line, some returning playmakers on the outside. All they need is to have OC Chip Kelley find a qb, and he will.
18	Notre Dame	19	A lot of talent that should come together. Questions about the secondary linger.
19	Wisconsin	20	They lose a key playmaker in their RB (Not hill), but still jump PSU.
20	Penn State	17	While Morelli's loss is overblown, the new offense hasn't looked great, per reports.
21	Virginia Tech	21	Lost everybody on offense, literally, and just lost another to an indefinite suspension. Nobody on the wideout 2-deep has ever caught a pass
22	Utah	22	See BYU. Experienced QB. They look to upset Michigan.
23	California	23	Tedford can coach some football and I expect Cal to win 8-9 games.
24	Arizona State	24	They are good everywhere except offensive line. Their Oline is horrid.
25	Alabama		The reports from practice are better than I expected. Huge questions for the linebacking corps still remain.

Added: Alabama
Dropped: None (only ranked 24 initially)

On the cusp: Kansas (they play a real schedule this year), TCU (veteran squad that plays within their scheme), Pittsburgh (The Stache' is putting together some talent), Wake Forest (lost a ton on offense, could rise quickly), Maryland (underrated)

No longer on the cusp: Ole Miss (3 major DLine Injuries)

Delayed Ranking: Florida State ('till Music Appreciatorgate is over)

Comment, critique, let's hear it.

08/17/08 E-MailBag

Well, I'd promised a mailbag for a while now and here it is.

User Chad wrote: Myron Rolle - liability in coverage or victim of scheme/teammates?

I'd have to say that he is both. Rolle was burned last year and there are serious questions about the fluidity in his hips and his top-end speed. That said, he is rated as the #1 overall strong safety prospect for the 2009 draft by NFL DraftScout and Mickey Andrew's defense has really slipped in the past few years. If NFl Scouts think he is the best safety prospect out there, but he isn't a superstar player for FSU, it's reasonable to conclude that they believe that he will either improve immensly at a later date, or that he is already good and misused by Mickey Andrews. In either case, they think that their coaches can make it happen. I think he can be a decent NFL safety, and a very good college safety. Mickey needs to use him more on Blitzes in my opinion, and put him in more robber positions so he can intimidate people and make some serious hits.

More from Chad: Antone Smith - why has his YPC gone down? Will he pull a Washington/Booker and be better at the next level than now? If so, why? Is the line that bad or can he just not hit the holes?

As is so often the case, health is so important. I don't think Antone was healthy for most of last year. He was clearly hobbled in some games by his shoulder injury and turf toe. If you haven't had turf toe, I seriously suggest reading this excellent article from the ESPN.com Training Room. Antone killed Kentucky last year in the Bowl game, and he has really shown a great burst to date in training camp. The offensive line hasn't been good, and there haven't always been holes to hit. As I already talked about, this offensive line will probably be better this year. When healthy, Antone has always produced and I fully expect him to have a big year. As for the NFL, he seems a little small for that level.

Commenter Arthronole Wrote: Regarding your Return of the Sack article, I was wondering what your thoughts were regarding the overall offensive scheme changes in college football in general and how has it impacted FSU's success with QB pressure & sacks? FSU has or will see many variations of the option offense(spread @ UF, Orbit @ WF, Wishbone @ Ga Tech, standard @ Va Tech

Andrew's defense has clearly slipped in the past few years, specifically his pass defense. He had always recruited excellent defensive backs, but recently his recruits have been flops for the most part. I criticize him for his lack of creativity and his inflexibility. Some say that his defense is entirely predicated on getting serious pressure on the qb. Great. What if you don't get that pressure? We need to have more variety. We really don't disguise our coverages well.

On a positive note, I do think that FSU will eventually defend the spread well. Teams that blitz frequently get shredded by the spread scheme which makes them come from a greater distance and presents real issues when they try to disguise who is coming and from where. FSU doesn't blitz excessively, and hopefully they can get back to getting pressure form the front four.

FSU owns the triple option and with Miami, they were largely responsible for the disappearance of the triple option from the major college football scene. It's tougher now to prepare for the triple option because modern players aren't familiar with the attack and it's difficult to simulate the attack at full speed with the scout team.

As for Wake Forest, FSU lived in the Deacon's backfield last year and I fully expect them to return to dominating Wake very soon. FSU's athletes are just better than Wake's and now that FSU knows they have to focus on Wake's unique scheme, I expect them to come strong. This year will be especially tough for Wake since FSU will dominate their wideouts (all new) and their offensive line has not impressed in camp to date.

FSU will always be aggressive on defense, but they need to play smarter overall. Don't be aggressive for no reason. Read, then react.

Anynymous wrote: I'm not a coach and haven't seen Jody Allen coaching the ends. But it wouldn't suprise me if your speculation is correct. Bobby Bowden has a history of taking yeoman coaches and letting them coach positions they never even played before, much less coached (Jimmy Heggins ring a bell?). How can a former under-talented offensive lineman like Allen who is a grad asst. one year suddenly become a DE coach the next, ready to teach the finer points of technique, balance, steps, etc? We simply do not have the talent and depth to paper over subpar coaching anymore. This program will never truly turn around until Bobby takes his naps somewhere else and Jimbo is finally able to clean house!

We already said that Jody Allen needs to go. Obviously he is underqualified to coach defensive ends at the major college level. I agree that Bobby is a current net negative for the program. That said, we are in a better spot than we would have been had Jimbo left for West Virginia. I fully expect Jimbo to clean house and get rid of the last remnants of the Nepotism Era, but the key now is to continue to get this program ready for the 2010-2012 transition seasons.

Anthronole wrote, in regard to the They're Baaack... ACC OFFENSE EDITION:Does anyone else think the talk of the OL, while a concern, has been blown out of proportion? It's not like FSU is the only school in the ACC with only 2 returning starting OL. Clemson is as well but they get picked to win the ACC?

Yes, it is being overblown, especially when you consider that FSU gets 2 warm up games and won't face a hostile crowd until October (Miami). Early reports on the line have been very encouraging. I'm not blind to the youth, and I do expect some struggles, but other teams will struggle as well. I cited Wake's offensive line as a primary factor for my belief that FSU will soundly beat them this year even with the suspensions.

Anthronole wrote: Back in the JB era, the offensive was surprisingly high scoring compared to the rest of the ACC, but pass heavy. Even though scoring was way down last year, the offense was more balanced under JF.

Schedule, Schedule, Schedule! You always have to consider the schedule! FSU's 2007 schedule was very difficult, and their 2006 schedule was a cakewalk. Comparing those two years isn't really fair to Jimbo or Jeff. I saw a lot of improvement from the offense in 2007, and balance is just one factor that I could highlight.

Finally, Chili commented: I added your site to our blogroll over at DFIG. Bill at Scalp Em introduced me to the site and I read it daily. Excellent analysis. Keep up the good work.

Thanks Chili. For our readers who don't know, DFIG is a great Clemson blog. It stands for Danny Ford is God, and you can find them here, or in our blogroll (at right). I'm sure we will discuss the big conference showdown with them soon.

More on Weatherford Report, and a coming mailbag.

08/05/08: I'm having a hard time writing quality stuff right now. I do expect to have 2 pieces up by the end of this weekend, in addition to the stuff I mentioned below. By the way, Florida won in the LLWS over South Dakota 10-0 in 4 innings.

I finished the stuff I was working on for work. It's now time to get back to bringing you guys the 'Nole Insight I know you come here for.

• I added a bit about the Little League World Series. I know it's not FSU related, but hopefully you will enjoy it.

• Injuries are mounting in college football. I added the most significant one to the post I made earlier this year on FSU's shocking injury record.

• I updated The Weatherford Report. New Charts and Graphs! Also, why Drew beats up on Boston College!
  

• The Daniel Allyn Hood research is coming along very well. I appreciate every one's help with that. Still though, I plan to sit on that story and unleash it during one of our first 2 game weeks.

• I conducted an interview with an expert on the Georgia Bulldogs. They started 3 freshmen on their offensive line last year. Expect that in the next few days.

• I know I've promised a Mailbag for a while, and that is coming as well. I often work on several projects at once and I need to stop that. Do you like the idea of weaving user comments into the articles? Let me know.
  

• FSUncensored put their entry into 1270theteam's J.C.S. Poll (The official college football poll of the Jeff Cameron Show). I can tell you that UGA and to a lesser extent USC will be dropping some after suffering some injuries.
  
• I'm considering going on Jeff's show on a weekly basis to discuss the 'Noles, still need to talk to Jeff about it though. Wouldn't it be a shock to hear Jeff be the more reserved guy in a Florida State interview? If you don't already listen to Jeff on a daily basis at work, you really should.
  

• Hines and I run another Blog where we keep track of all the college football injuries. He's in the middle of a move right now, but usually we update on Monday and Thursday.

• Also in the works: An article profiling who the Noles can least afford to lose to injury, from worst to first. This isn't a "best player list", it's a "Most value over replacement player" list, or MVRP.
  

Big project due Monday... blog will be slow.

In my probably absence, I encourage our 2,113 unique visitors (and growing) to visit the other great sites listed in our Blogroll (at right). Please continue to dig for into about the post below. We are looking for that recruit's birth date.

I may post a few links to things that happen at practice over the weekend.

CRT (Coach Rick Trickett) says that this year's OLIne is better and that the guys he had last year were 7-6 guys in Andrew Carter's Chopping Block. This is really encouraging. I've maintained forever that losing veterans only hurts if those veteran's were good veterans with good experience. I'm not so sure the guys we lost fit that bill.

Shameless Self Promotion: ScalpEm.com lists their favorite FSU sites from worst to best. Where does FSUncensored rank? "Too New to be eligible:

All I’m going to say is that is has a lot of potential, but the site design needs some work. Get past the red and yellow and read the content. There’s some good stuff. If they keep it up, they’ll be highly ranked in this list."

That's fine by me. I'll try to play with the design some. If anybody has any helpful hints or tricks on site design, lemme know. I already cut the Garnet font down to black, and changed the html color code from yellow (it was gross) to Gold (ffee00). Check out the list. I think I have all of them in the blogroll (at right) already, but NoleCC provides some good commentary and explanations on what they are all about. I always encourage you to visit all of the FSU sites to get the full feel for the FSU team.

Little League World Series: I know this isn't FSU related, but it is a Florida note. The Citrus Park Little League team just tore the Southeast Region a new one. The Southeast is traditionally a very difficult region, and Citrus Park went 5-0. What's more incredible? They silenced the aluminum bats of every team they faced:

29 IP, 18 Hits, 3 Earned Runs, 42 Strikeouts, 6 walks, 0.93 ERA.

That is better than Pedro Martinez, circa '98. I enjoy watching LLWS because I played baseball all my life and coached several teams. This Florida team can go very far. They have 4 guys who can consistently get outs, and a balanced lineup with power. Additionally, the Southeast region is more difficult then their match ups in the first round as they teams from the Midwest, Great Lakes, and New England Regions, which usually suck. FSUncensored will follow the LLWS here, and will be rooting for the Florida team all the way.

08/12/08 Update:

Florida is through to the World Series. Nevada, the other team with a legit shot to challenge them, is not joining them. They were beaten by a decent Hawaii squad, who Florida will face Sunday in pool play.

221 S.W.3d 531

If you know what that means, and have any info other than what is already in there (and the original case transcripts aren't, at least not that I saw), let me know. Leave it in the comments section, or leave a contact email.

FSU is still offering.

Tennessee is allegedly not. I have to figure they're in the best position to know about the guy.

If even half of that stuff is true, I don't want him representing the 'Noles.

If you don't know that that means, I'll explain later in a detailed post after training camp.

Is this Bobby's last season?

Andrew Carter reports that Bobby will leave if he doesn't see significant improvement.

"I hate to say if we don't do this, I'm leaving. You know, you hate to say that. But yet, how many more [7-6 seasons] can you stand? I can't stand hardly anymore." "We have got to do better or I'm going to have to get out of here."

I really encourage you to read the entire article. Carter dug up some good quotes from Robert C.

Luckily for Bobby, the efforts of the new coaching staff, combined with a healthier, stronger team, and an easy schedule should make sure improvement happens.

Still, though, FSU is one coach short with Bobby around. You can't deny the value of the 100 Hour week that the Nick Saban's of the world put in.

While many still cite Bowden's value on the recruiting trail, but at this point, that credit is misplaced. A super majority of recruits now credit Coach Fisher with convincing them to come to the Tallanasty. Nowadays, an 18 year old high school senior doesn't remember the Bobby Bowden of the glory days. They were 11 in Jeff Bowden's first year. Their image of Bowden is one of a confused man stalking the sidelines with a handkerchief, needing an army of coaches to explain a penalty to him.

We love coach Bowden, and all that he did for Florida State. He is still a great speaker. He built FSU into what it is and with one selfish decision he was very close to tearing it all down. I hope FSU handles his retirement with class. I hope he will be a great Jon Wooden type figure, sitting in a very visible sky box with T.K. and older players, and I hope that it happens starting 2009.

They're Baaaack.... ACC Offense Edition

Team	CLEM	FSU	WAKE	MD	BC	NCST	VT	UNC	MIA	GT	DUKE	UVA
QB Returning?	YES	YES?	YES	YES	NO	YES?	YES	YES	NO	NO*	YES	NO
ACC Rank: Points per Game	2nd	7th	3rd	6th	4th	11th	1st	8th	10th	9th	12th	5th
ACC Rank: Total Offense Yards	2nd	3rd	8th	7th	1st	9th	5th	10th	11th	4th	12th	6th
Total Yards Lost	136	1126	2705	2287	2981	1420	3395	0	1356	2640	1230	1178
% of Total Yards Returning	97%	77%	39%	48%	50%	65%	27%	100%	64%	?	62%	73%
ACC Rank: Rush YPG	3rd	7th	8th	5th	10th	11th	2nd	9th	4th	1st	12th	6th
ACC Rank: Rush YPC	2nd	3rd	10th	7th	9th	11th	4th	8th	6th	1st	12th	5th
Rushing Yards Lost	0	235	814	1573	1405	0	1104	0	193	1645	345	279
% of Total Rushing Yards Returning	100%	90%	56%	12%	0%	100%	41%	100%	89%	?	55%	84%
Receiving Yards Lost	136	955	1891	714	1576	1420	2291	0	1166	995	885	899
% of Total Receiving Yards Returning	96%	70%	26%	73%	65%	52%	17%	100%	43%	?	64%	64%
OLinemen Starters Returning	1	2	2	4	2	3	4	4	2	?	4	3
Sacks Against	35	22	28	40	22	26	54	37	25	22	45	33
Combined OLine starts of projected Line	21	23	24	73	41	45	70	64	72	?	70	48

Some Observations:

Clemson will easily be the best offense in the ACC this year. They have offensive line issues, but their collection of skill position talent is amazing. Additionally, they have the only upperclassman QB prospect in Cullen Harper. It is interesting to note that despite the attention paid to FSU's inexperience on the OLIne, Clemson's projected starting 5 have fewer career starts than the Seminole's 5.

Florida State has the best collection of receivers in the ACC. I also found it curious that the 2 teams who are likely to have the top offense in the league have the most inexperienced offensive lines.

Keeping with the trend, Wake's offensive line is questionable as well. The other issue that jumps out at me is the huge loss of offensive weapons. Wake lost 60% of their rushing and receiving yards. Losing Micah Andrews, Kenny Moore, and Kevin Marion hurts a lot more than people may realize. I have to think Wake will struggle early behind a new offensive line while their WR's get jammed into the turf. The loss of TE Tereshinski will also hamper the offense. Wake is more of a passing team than people know. Vegas expects them to struggle early as well, pinning them as a 6 point underdog for their early trip to Tallahassee, even though FSU will be without 5 starters due to Music Appreciatorgate.

I look for Maryland to improve this year. While they lost half of their skill position yards, they return what many consider the best offensive line in the conference. Freidgen is an excellent offensive play caller. I fully expect Maryland's offense to finish in the top 4 this year. Teams have to double team dangerous wide receiver Darius Heyward-Bay on every play and still have to contend with Freidgen's schemes. Combine that with the difficulty getting pressure on the QB due to the offensive line, and Maryland won't be an easy opponent to stop. I'm not worried about their prospects of finding a running back. Their defense, however, is another story which I'll address with a chart at a later date. FSU travels to Maryland in late November. This game worries me because of the weather, Friedgen, and because it is a huge lookahead game with UF being on deck.

0%. Boston College returns 0% of their rushing yards from last year. They lost their QB to the Atlanta Falcons with the 4th overall pick. They return as many starters on the OLine as FSU. To say that BC's offense should take a step back this year is an understatement. One positive, however, is they still have their below average wideout core intact.

NC State should be bad again this year. This team lacks offensive talent. While I do like their running back situation, their QB is unremarkable and their pass catcher's are plain bad.

I'll do the Coastal section in a bit.

Reader Questions

Reader Anonymous asks:

FSU was ranked 3rd in yard per carry and tied for 1st in sacks allowed. That seems contrary to the weak offensive line excuse constantly thrown about in forums the last few years. No?

Not quite. While our running game did get better last season, we still don't face teams selling out against our rush attack. This is simply because we don't run all that often compared to some other teams. FSU is a pass first team, and it is easier to run when facing a defense geared to stop the pass.

Reader Anthronole asks:

I'm not sure I understand how you're calculating Total Yards Lost, Rushing Yards Lost and Receiving Yards Lost and the corresponding percentiles. I'm assuming that is that based on player personnel returning. Maybe?

That is correct. The contributions by players who left/ the total yards (rushing or receiving). If I had 2 running backs, and one rushed for 300, the other for 700, and the 700 graduated, then I'd lose 700 yards and only return 30% of last year's rushing yards.

It seems FSU is right there with many of the other schools in returning starting linemen. I think it'll be interesting to see how FSU does over the season compared with Clemson and WF since we return a similar number of linemen and have a similar number of starts for projected linemen.

This is very important. Clemson and Wake are both massively inexperienced up front, just as FSU is.

Does anyone else think the talk of the OL, while a concern, has been blown out of proportion?

Yes and no. The offensive line play was bad from '05-'07. But the "no" part of my answer is in regards to the amount of attention the line is garnering this year. I do not believe that there will be a dropoff in line play from last year to this year. This is because I don't believe the players FSU lost were very good, plain and simple.

More from user Anonymous (and I encourage you to register. We will interview various commenters throughout the year for their opinions on FSU and this site.)

Pass defense (ranked 85 in the nation) and scoring (ranked 90) are the two biggest concerns I saw.

Surprisingly, on paper it looks like our defense has tanked the most over the last couple years. Last year we were third from last in total defense in the ACC. Rush defense was only average and pass defense was last in the ACC. We've also gone from giving up on average 14 (ranked 2 in the ACC)points in 2004 to giving up 22 (ranked 8 in the ACC) last year.

Back in the JB era, the offensive was surprisingly high scoring compared to the rest of the ACC, but pass heavy. Even though scoring was way down last year, the offense was more balanced under JF.

We have improvements to make on both sides. Offense looks like it should be improved this year, but defense remains questionable.

I will do one of these reviews for ACC defenses soon, probably in the middle of next week.

The error in comparing FSU's offense under Jimbo to the offense under Jeff is this: Jeff benefited for several years from Mark Richt's recruits. Jimbo now has to deal with the remnants of the "nepotism era." Let's wait to judge Jimbo for a bit at least. Also, last year's schedule was much more difficult than our '06 schedule. I'd look back to '05 for a better comparison, and I may do that soon.

Coaches Poll is out, My top 25, & Random News-n-Notes

First things first. FSU is unranked in the first ESPN/ USA Today Coaches Poll. This should surprise nobody. FSU is 14-12 over their last 2 seasons as we are still dealing with the hangover from the "Nepotism Era."

Still though, there are a few gripes I have with the poll, so I decided to break it down Vegas Style:

Here are the teams that would be favored by a td or more against us, teams who we'd be favored by a TD or more against, and then games that fall in between. Let's assume a neutral site for these "games", away from either team's state.

Unquestioned underdogs of a TD or more
1. Georgia
2. Southern California
3. Ohio State
4. Oklahoma
5. Florida
6. LSU
7. Missouri
8. West Virginia
9. Clemson
10. Texas
11. Auburn
14. Texas Tech

These squads are more difficult to project, however, we wouldn't be more than a TD dog or a TD fave.
21. South Florida
22. Penn State (Though I'm not sure how much the 2 backup defensive tackle dismissals hurt them.)
12. Wisconsin
13. Kansas
15. Virginia Tech (We are currently favorites by 2 for our game in october.)
16. Arizona State
17. Brigham Young
18. Tennessee
20. Oregon
23.Wake Forest (We're 5.5 favorites right now)

I am about 90% sure we would be TD or more favorites against these.
19. Illinois (Horrible offense)
24. Michigan (Huge player attrition, new system, very few new starters)
25. Fresno State (Sort of average, but they are veteran. Should beat Wisconsin early and will be in the top 25 until they meet Boise State @ season's end.)

Scalper's Top 25
My top 25 looks a little bit different. I base my top 25 on how I Currently believe the best teams are. Once the FSU "music appreciator's" come back from their 3 game vacation, they may enter the poll. I'm not ranking FSU when they are missing 4 defensive starters. The uncertainty at QB also hurts them.

1. Ohio State: Defense returns 10 of 11 starters (several projected 1st rounders), Top rated QB in the big 10, Very good offensive line, Best RB in the country by a long shot (KNOshon it's not Moreno), and they actually out gained LSU in the bowl game last year. One of the only defenses in the country with the speed to hang with UF.
2. Florida: Punted less than 3 times per game last year. Most talented team in the country. Best offense in the country, with both Tebow and the Offense vying to be the best in in football history, respectively. Will have far and away the most improved defense in the nation. They've been stopped with a healthy Tim Tebow only once (Auburn last year.)
3. USC
4. Oklahoma
5. Georgia: Just watch. Last year's road performances: beat Vanderbilt 20-17, beat Alabama 26-23 (OT), lost @ Tennessee 35-14. Still feeling confident? Their best wins: beat Auburn @ home, beat Florida with a statuesque Tebow, beat Hawaii. Other Losses: South Carolina held them under 300 yards in Athens. If they beat good teams at full strength, they'll move up.
6. Texas Tech
7. Missouri
8. Clemson
9. West Virginia
10. South Florida
11. Texas
12. Auburn
13. LSU (Both Auburn and LSU could rise quickly once I see their QB play.)
14. South Carolina (Amazing defense now healthy and Stephen Garcia's suspension was lifted hours ago)
15. Tennessee
16. BYU
17. Penn State
18. Oregon
19. Notre Dame
20. Wisconsin
21. Virginia Tech (Lost everybody on offense, literally)
22. Utah
23. California
25. Arizona State

On the Cusp: Kansas (they play a real schedule this year), Alabama (solid offensive line and 5th year Senior QB), Ole Miss (surprise team of the year?), TCU (veteran squad that plays within their scheme), Pittsburgh (The Stache' is putting together some talent), Wake Forest (lost a ton on offense, could rise quickly), Maryland (underrated)

Delayed Ranking: Florida State ('till Music Appreciatorgate is over)

News & Notes

• Bobby Bowden's comments on the Tim Brando Show fueled rumors that the quarterback decision isn't really in the hands of Jimbo Fisher. Paraphrase: Drew is a capable leader and Ponder is a quality backup. Yuck. Here's hoping that Jimbo throws the entire LSU playbook at both qb's. I really don't see Drew making difficult throws anytime soon.
  

• A new attitude @ FSU? It's been over three months since the Preston Parker arrest. Now, I do not want to jinx this, but if FSU gets through these next 3 weeks without an arrest, it may signal that a new team attitude. Last week, traditionally a nail-biter, was arguably the most crucial week for avoiding trouble since the players had no "voluntary" read: mandatory workouts. Avoiding trouble there was key. Let's try to skate for 3 more weeks.
  
• As an FSU Alum, I want players to avoid violent felonies and crimes that show a truly criminal mindset (not too keen on identity theft). I really don't care if they smoke weed as long as they beat the pre-announced drug tests. Dealing is a different story. The rule: don't do anything that would land you on the bottom line of CNN. ESPN? eh, probably okay. Also, stay out of cars as much as possible: they are an express waiver of rights.

• Why is it wrong to cut nonperforming players in college football? FSU cut 5th year Offensive Linemn Geoff Berniard Give me a break. Berniard already graduated. he never sniffed the field and didn't progress like we wanted him to. Why are athletic scholarships different from athletic scholarships? Both have requirements that the recipient must meet. For my academic scholarship, I was required to keep a 3.25 GPA and graduate within 4 years. The scholarship was not guaranteed. Unless I am missing something here, Athletic scholarships require the student to remain in good academic standing (piece of cake with minimal effort) and progress and contribute to the team. They are not guaranteed contracts as in baseball. Geoff was free to leave the team at any time and FSU is free to cut him at any time. College kids regularly transfer without repercussion. The signed letter of intent represents a one year deal and it is implicitly renewed each year upon the agreement of the coaching staff and the player. Here, FSU chose not to renew. They owe him nothing. He was compensated for each year of contribution to FSU football. If he wanted his scholarship to be guaranteed, he should have bargained for it. If he was good enough he might have received the concession, but he wasn't and didn't. Prepare for FSU to get ripped over this. Tell your friends you don't care. This is a step in the right direction if our program is going to get back to its dominant ways.
  

• What stories do you want to see?
• I'll be adding the comments from the various stories into the actual articles and answering some of the off-topic ones in a mailbag.
• User comments pertaining to the stories will now be added directly into the article! I'll answer them in the actual article if they're good.
  
• I have the beginnings of a story which details FSU's problems in the running game over the past few years.
  
• I'll be adding about 2 more pages to The Weatherford Report, so make sure to check back in on that in a day or two.
• We are working on another QB story (basically, why we had to start true frosh for 2 consecutive 4 year terms)
• Which teams lost the most yards due to skill position player departure?
  
• A story about recruit attrition, retention, development, and the like is in the works and will be a joint venture with ChantRant.
  

• Lastly, tell your friends about FSUncensored!
• And if you read a story, give a comment. Let us know you're here!
  

Return of the Sack (Once Again)

**I know that this is rough, has multiple grammar mistakes, needs the note about the former Defensive Ends Coach JG and the note about DT's last year. It will come but I am out of town till tomorrow afternoon.**

This off-season, FSU HC Bobby Bowden opined that the team did not generate enough pressure on the quarterback. FSUncensored decided to take another look. For the purposes of this study, I looked at ACC games (excluding Duke), and Non Conference games against BCS opponents. I limited the study in this way so the numbers won't be skewed by huge totals against extremely inferior opponents who were forced to pass on every down in the second half of games.

'04: 7.8% 25 Sacks over 322 Dropbacks in 9 games. Teams Excluded: UAB, Syracuse, Duke.
'05: 9.0% 33 Sacks over 366 Dropbacks in 10 games. Teams Excluded: The Citadel, Duke. Syracuse.
'06: 6.8% 18 Sacks over 266 Dropbacks in 9 games. Teams Excluded: Troy, Rice, Duke, Western Michigan.
'07: 6.4% 27 Sacks over 424 Dropbacks in 11 games. A sack every 14.7 dropbacks. Teams Excluded: UAB, Duke.

Sack rate is the most effective way to measure sacks because it takes out the naturally occurring variance that results from game to game. A good sack rate is 8.5%. The top teams in the country have sack rates of about 10.5%, but they probably average around 9% against their good competition. Since that is the filter I applied, that is the number we will shoot for. 6.4% for FSU is bad.

What are some possible reasons for this dropoff in sack rate?

Kevin Steele coming, and going.
Talent drop (defensive ends and linebackers)
Jody Allen
Playing in close games resulting in more uncertainty as to the play call

Let's use this chart to help us find the answers:

Year	DE Sacks	Total Sacks	% of Total
‘00	30	45	66%
‘01	No Data	No Data	No Data
‘02	27	34	79%
‘03	20	36	55%
‘04	18	39	46%
‘05	13	44	30%
‘06	7	27	26%
‘07	12.5	29	43%

I couldn't find reliable records for 2001, but the data clearly trends downward, yet there is a glimmer of hope in last season's numbers.

Idealism: The more pressure your defensive line creates, the less need you have for blitzing, and the more men you can devote to coverage.

I do think that FSU blitzed more under Kevin Steele, who coached FSU's linebackers from 2003-2006. Steele was a known fan of the 3-4 defense, which features a lot of blitzing. In Steele's first year, FSU had 55% of sacks from the defensive ends, compared to 79% the year before. I think Steele's blitzing attitude did make Mickeyt want to send the guys more often, and as a result, our defensive ends picked up some 3-4 tendencies. Our LB's sack totals were consistently high under the Steele regime. The Overall sack totals were also down. The blitzing may not have been entirely because of Kevin Steele however, because the secondary has played very poorly over the past 3 years (#74 in 2005, #43 in 2006 and # 50 last year, in adjusted pass efficiency defense. Interestingly, In 2007, ChuckTheChest (Chuck Amato, you know him from The Weatherford Report ), became the LB coach again, and the LB's stopped blitzing all of the time. FSU's defensive ends contributed 43% of the team's sacks. Conclusion: Kevin Steele did not hurt the sack rate overall, but did somewhat change the way our defensive ends play. This hurt FSU's image as "D-End U"

Sacks come primarily from 2 sources; linebackers and defensive linemen. The linebackers have not decreased in talent. The defensive ends (and to a smaller extent the tackles) probably have. In the typical pattern of the recruiting practices from 2001-2006, FSU recruited Brian Coulter , an excellent defensive end prospect who could never get in. He is now at Missouri. FSU struggled to bring in talented edge rushers over the past few years, specifically during the Steele era. Here is a quick synopsis of the edge rushers FSU brought in under the Steele Era (2004-2006, 2003 doesn't count because he didn't impact the 2003 recruiting class.) I scored them using Phil Steele's PS#, a measure of where they rank vs. all other defensive linemen. Obviously they would rank higher if rated only against defensive ends as opposed to linebackers.

Justin Mincey, PS # 17-- Moved to defensive tackle @ 275+LBS. He didn't have the speed to be an edge rusher at that size.

Neefy Moffet, 6-1, 260, Sr. PS # 10LB-- Decent member of the current defensive end rotation. He is a bigger defensive end however, and isn't really an edge rusher.

Brian Coulter, PS #?-- super highly rated defensive end prospect, never could qualify.

Kevin McNiel, 6-2, 255, Jr. PS #217-- good prospect. Involved in a car accident and missed '07 season.. 3 Sacks Freshmen year. Currently a Junior. Not the quickest guy, similar to Moffet (above).


Jamar Jackson, 6-4, 232, So. PS # 48LB-- blew out knee, now reportedly healthy. Light enough to get around the edge. Should be a solid member of the rotation this year.

Everette Brown (at left), 6-4 250, Jr. PS # 23LB-- Stud. 6.5 sacks last year as the primary starter. He is rated a top 10 defensive end prospect and is a definite first day prospect (top 3 rounds) should he leave this year. At 6-4, 250 he is quick enough to get around the edge. The crown jewel of FSU's defensive end stable and really the only one who has a clear NFL future at this point. He should help the end on the opposite side because he demands a double team every time the qb drops back. FSU has not had a first round defensive end since Kamerion Wimbley in '06 (2005 senior season), and Everette clearly stands out as the next. Who will be the end on the opposite side?








Markus White, 6-4 250, Jr. PS#2 among Juco DE's. 24.5 sacks last year at Butler JUCO. Named national junior college defensive player of the year. 24.5 sacks at a high level junior college is impressive. Some guys have a nose for the ball and it appears that Markus (sic) has just that. His film seems to show someone with great explosion and anticipation. His outstanding attribute seems to be his first step quickness. White has clear NFL potential and it would not surprise me to see both White and Brown leave after their junior years.

FSU should have it's best season from its defensive ends since 2002. Bolstered by the addition of White, the continued progress of Brown, the health and maturity of Jackson, Moffett, and McNiel, it is perfectly reasonable to expect the defensive end rotation to be the Acc's best and they should reach 24 sacks in '08 (8 each from Brown and White, with the other 5 in the rotation contributing about 1.5 each.)

FSU has recruited a slough of talented defensive end prospects in the '08 and '09 (unsigned) recruiting classes. It appears that Chuck Amato's prowess in developing several NFL defensive ends at NC State (Mario Williams #1 Overall DraftPick, Manny Lawson) is helping, along with the prospect of early playing time.

Honesty and fairness are 2 central goals of this blog. I needed to say that because I am about to suggest that a current member of FSU's staff isn't a great coach. Jody Allen became FSU's defensive ends coach at the end of the 2002 season. While defensive tackle coach Odell Haggins churns out NFL DT after NFL dt (Travis Johnson, Broderick Brunkley, Darnell Dockett), Jody Allen has struggled to produce NFL defensive ends of late (Kamerion Wimbley). More troubling, however, is the lack of development and progress of Alex Boston, Anthony Kelley (LB), Willie Jones, Darrell Burston, and Neefy Moffett. Until Amato came back(2007), FSU struggled mightily in recruiting and developing edge rushers. I am not there everyday in practice and I'm not able to see his coaching ability, but the stark contrast suggests that Odell is very good and that maybe Jody isn't. I do believe this unit will benefit from increased talent this year and he does have some excellent pieces to work with. The increase in sacks from defensive ends as a percentage of total sacks increased last year upon Amato's return and I feel that is a good sign of things to come. I fully expect a dominant group of defensive ends this year. If that does not happen then FSU may seriously need to consider jettisoning yet another "Nepotism Era" hire.

Yet another explanation for the drop off in total sacks is FSU's overall performance. When teams are leading or trailing by a large margin, their play calls are predictable. FSU has been in much closer games due to the complete ineptness of Bobby Bowden hire Jeff Bowden and the deplorable decline of the offense in the nepotism era. FSU can't count on teams throwing all the time in the second half now, which makes it much more difficult as a defense to pin the ears back and go full gear at the quarterback. This is clearly a reason the sack % has worsened in recent years. If the offense improves, other teams will be more predictable and our defensive ends can once again tee off on the opposing quarterback. Hopefully the offense will improve and FSU defensive ends can forget about playing the run in the 4th quarter and pad their stats with ridiculous loops around the opposing team's poor left tackle.

Depth: FSU hasn't had quality depth in a while. FSU lived off a multi-man rotation in the past and they always had fresh defensive ends in the 4th quarter. The depth seems to be improved and I look for fresh fourth quarter legs once again.

Screen Passes, Draw Plays, etc: Someone suggested that FSU faces more of these passes now than ever before. I am not able to research how many screen passes or draw plays FSU have seen in recent years and I certainly can't get data from the pre-youtube era. These are made to slow the defense down and discourage aggressive upfield rushing. I do think that our defensive scheme is vulnerable to misdirection, screen passes, draw plays, and the like. I just don't know if FSU really does see more of them now than they used to.

I will be very surprised if FSU does not have its best sack season since 2000. With a greater contribution from the defensive ends allowing the linebackers to become more involved in the passing game, the secondary should improve as well.

Who is Heather Dinich?

Recently, Jeff Cameron on 1270theteam.com wondered who Heather Dinich was?

"a graduate of the APSE/Sports Journalism Institute class of 1999, will join the Post full time as a reporter covering sports in Anne Arundel County. She is a June graduate of Indiana University, where she had been managing editor and assistant sports editor of the Daily Student.!"

She is currently the ACC correspondent for ESPN.com

She is also incredibly biased in favor of Maryland! How do I know?

Heather Dinich of the Baltimore Sun confirmed yesterday that this is her last week covering the Terps beat for the paper and the blog. She is leaving for a new job with ESPN.com covering ACC football.

This is her former blog: http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/sports/college/maryland_terps/blog/

She recently ranked Maryland's offensive line as the best in the ACC, and FSU's as the worst. I actually think this is correct. Maryland has a good offensive line.

She also recently projected FSU 4th in the Atlantic Division. Who is not surprisingly ahead of FSU? That's right, Maryland. Vegas has Maryland projected at 6.5 victories, and FSU at 8.5.

Also, our homerish ACC "correspondent" went to "APSE/Sports Journalism Institute"

What the heck is the APSE? Apparently, it is a sports journalism school that caters to minorities and women, which is cool. I've never heard of them. I'm not sure if the training is good or not, but I do know what they provide:

A crash course in sports journalism next summer at the Poynter Institute May 31- June 8, where their instruction will come from working professionals in daily sports journalism plus staff from Poynter. Class sessions will range from ethics to photo editing to how to keep running score at a baseball game to copy editing. Travel and rooming expenses will be arranged by the institute and paid for by the institute.

Eight weeks of professional experience at a paid internship in the sports department of a daily newspaper (June 9-Aug. 3).

A $500 scholarship upon successful completion of the program for students returning to college.

UPDATE: We have learned that the APSE is a good school. While I still find the mention of "how to keep score at a baseball game" to be quite hilarious, my sources tell me that the school is quite good.

We don't hate Ms. Dinnich. We have simply classified her as a homer for the Terps and will take her future posts with a grain o' salt. We also appreciate the work she has done and she manages to crank out a ton of updates each day.

**08/08 Update.**

These are actual questions and answers from her recent chat:

Peter (Boston): Clemson's trip to BC isn't gonna determine if they're for real? But Maryland at home will? Give me a break!

Heather Dinich: (12:09 PM ET ) Did you forget the Terps' last second win on a field goal down there, what was it, two seasons ago? Ralph Friedgen loves to play in Death Valley.

This question is in response to Heather's prediction that Alabama (nonconference neutral site game), @ Wake Forest, and vs. Maryland are the 3 games that will determine if Clemson is for real. 'Bama and Wake are fine by me, but Peter from Boston correctly inquires as to the Maryland choice. Rational fans believe that a late season test @ FSU, or possibly a cold weather trip to BC are more difficult. heather defends her pick above.

That is completely irrelevant. The Fridge is 2-1 lifetime in Death Valley, with one of those wins coming 6 or 7 years ago. I wonder how many of those players are still around? Imagine if people really evaluated games in this fashion:

Paul Johnson loves crab cakes. He's craved them since his days at Navy. Georgia Tech over Maryland in a runaway.

Jim Grobe is a lifetime Dolphin fan and enjoys strolling along South Beach in the buff. Getting to play in his favorite stadium (Miami now plays in Dolphin Stadium) should give Grobe the edge and Wake should take this one easily.

Yeah, that's what I'm talking about. Heather Dinnich. ACC Blogger. Zero years varsity football.

The Weatherford Report

As reported yesterday on Tomahawknation, Drew Weatherford is slated to start for FSU according to Bobby Bowden. This is a cause for concern in Seminole Nation. Let's have a look at the career of the three-year starter. NOTE: ACC Rankings are calculated out of QB’s who threw at least 190 passes in the cited year.

YR	GAMES STARTED	ATTEMPTS	COMPLETIONS	%	YDS	YpA	ACC RANK	TD	INT	QB RATING	ACC RANK
‘07	10	318	181	56.9	2049	6.4	10th (of 12)	9	3	118.5	9th (of 12)
‘06	10	318	177	55.7	2154	6.8	6th (of 11)	12	11	118.1	7TH (of 11)
‘05	13	469	276	58.5	3220	6.8	8th (of 9)	18	18	121.3	7TH (of 9)

What Can we learn from this table? First, realize that 32 starts is an enormous body of evidence for a college quarterback. I sometimes hesitate to analyze college players because of their inherently small sample sets. Weatherford is the exception because of his extensive body of work. There are very few college quarterbacks with the track record that Drew has.

Second, Weatherford has never been an above average quarterback in the ACC, despite having a significantly better supporting cast than the majority of ACC schools. The highest he has ever rated as a passer in the ACC is 7^th (of 11). Usually, one would expect to see improvement from a 4 year starting quarterback. We don’t see improvement from Weatherford, but we do see consistency from the grizzled veteran: consistently below average quarterbacking. Also present is a disturbing trend of beating up on bad teams and failing miserably against major conference teams, including the ACC. Weatherford’s poor play also stifles the running game, in turn heaping more pressure on his incapable shoulders. Since essentially winning the ACC freshman of the year award by default, he has shown little to no improvement.

Note, however, that I said he failed to improve and that he was consistently below average. I did not say that he hasn’t changed. Weatherford changed last season. He stopped taking risks. Not just large risks or unwise risks, but rather, any risks at all. To apply the Drew Weatherford approach in real life, simply avoid driving through green lights and don’t venture outside under overcast skies on the off chance it might rain. Notice how both of these analogies severely restrict movement. The same can be said of Weatherford’s stewardship of the Seminole offense.

How do we know that Weatherford changed his approach?

First, I watched every snap Drew threw last year and noticed the change. He stopped throwing intermediate and deep routes (except for jump balls, explained below). The numbers back it up and I’ll prove it to you throughout this article. Let’s go to his performance (aka the results). Scroll up to the chart. This is where the all important YPA (Yards per Attempt) comes in. YPA is an extremely important indicator of quarterback success. It is a measure of how many yards a team can expect to gain every time the quarterback passes the football. It is much better than Yards per Completion because it factors in accuracy, where Yards per Completion does not. Yards Per Attempt (or yards per pass) also relates to the running game: teams with high Yards per Attempt force defenses to respect the intermediate and deep pass and as a result those defenses play fewer men close to the line of scrimmage. With fewer opposing defenders crowding the line of scrimmage, the offense enjoys more space for their running game.

Weatherford’s YpA was 6.8 in both ’05 and ’06, good for 6^th (out of 11 qualifying quarterbacks), and 8^th (out of 9), respectively. Those numbers are pretty poor. To give some perspective, his 6.8 mark was worse than studs such as:

Kyle Wright- Miami (7.8);

Will Proctor- Clemson (7.7);

Sam Hollenbach- Maryland (8.1, and 7.2); and

Marques Hagans- Virginia (7.3).

If you do not know any of those guys, don’t worry. The NFL doesn’t know them either, nor do awards banquets, championship caliber football teams, or anyone else for that matter.

While his inability to push the ball down the field was always rather evident to most observers, last year he dropped to a ridiculous 6.4 yards per throw, good for 10^th in the ACC, behind the likes of TJ Yates (UNC), Thaddeus Lewis (DUKE), Kyle Wright (MIA), and Chris Turner (MD). All of those quarterbacks has less talent around them than Weatherford did, yet still achieved better seasons. Yards per attempt measures the expected success a team will have when they drop back to throw. Last year with Weatherford under center, FSU fans could expect to be in the bottom quarter of the ACC.

How do we know that 6.4 yards per throw is really horrible? Maybe the ACC just has an unusual affinity for gaining yards on pass plays?

Let’s see where his performance would rank in the other 5 BCS conferences to make sure we don’t have an anomaly in the ACC..

Conf	Weatherford’s 6.4 Yards Per Attempt Rank
ACC	10th (Bottom quarter)
SEC	10th (Bottom quarter)
Big 10	9th (Bottom 20%)
Big 12	9th (Bottom 1/3rd)
Pac 10	9th (Bottom 20%)
Big East	Last. 8th of 8. (7th if P. Bostich included)

Well, okay, so the performance would be poor in any conference. Certainly unacceptable for a 22 year old 3^rd year starter at Florida State University.

Did Weatherford choose to throw less intermediate and deep routes and thus drop his YPA?

Florida State did bring in National Champioship winning offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher last year, mercifully ending the “Nepotism Era.” Could it be that Jimbo hates the deep or intermediate route? Uh, no.

The YPA’s of Jimbo’s QB’s for the last 3 years he was at LSU:

9.2 (’06);

7.9 (’05); and

7.8 (’04).

Let’s go ahead and say that Jimbo didn’t decide to suddenly call all short stuff. This is a guy that likes to keep the safeties honest and stretch the field.

"I'm gon' try to throw the ball down the doggone field," Fisher says. "I know we can throw the quick stuff. We got to be able to change field position. ... That's the part I'm worried about." Jimbo Fisher, April 17, 2007 http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/columns/story?columnist=maisel_ivan&id=2840275

I think that quote pretty much affirms that Jimbo wants to go down the field with the football.

Many fail to grasp the huge difference that a yard makes when measuring yards per pass. Let me show you: Excluding 2006 when #1 overall Pick Jamarcus Russel threw for an incredible 9.2 yards per pass, Drew’s 6.4 yards per pass (YpA) is 23% less than the 7.85 YpA Jimbo’s QB’s threw for in ’04 and ’05 at LSU. A one yard difference represents a 23% jump. That is very significant.

We can definitively say that it wasn’t Jimbo. If you want further proof, look at some YouTube videos of LSU from ’04-’06 and you will see that Jimbo lived off the 15 yard Out, square-in, and the seam route. In FSU’s offense these passes are not featured thrown because Weatherford can’t hit them consistently enough for them to be productive. This still looks like #11’s choice.

Are the stats deflated because of high sack totals?

NO. First, in college sacks count against rushing yardage, not passing. Second, FSU QB’s took the least sacks among ACC teams in ’07 (22 sacks). Compare that to Virginia Tech, whose QB’s were sacked 54 times yet still posted a 7.6 average.

What could have caused this dramatic change in approach?

Several theories work here.

“He was tired of being hit due to a poor offensive line.”

Weatherford has a history of happy feet in the pocket and may have decided to take the easy way out to save his body. Intense competition from Xavier Lee put a premium on Weatherford’s health. One tweak of the leg and he might have waived goodbye to his job. This theory has some merit, but Weatherford has always proven to be a tough kid. He does lack talent, but he is totally willing to play hurt and has done so several times.

“He is from the Tampa area and wanted to play Dilfer (Ravens edition ) & Brad Johnson (Bucs Edition) football.”

This theory has some merit. Anyone who watches ESPN long enough to get through the Brett Farve will hear the experts extol the virtues of playing low-risk turnover free football. Limiting turnovers at any level is important. Unfortunately, turnovers are much more costly in the NFL due to the conservative nature of play and the drastic change in field position they cause. In college football, turnovers are less important due to the wide open nature of the game. Teams go up and down the field with greater ease in college than the pro’s. A sudden change in field position isn’t worth as many expected points, when compared to a punt, as the NFL. While Weatherford may have seen two quarterbacks win super bowls playing "just don't mess it up ball" during his formative years (He would have been in his late teens when the Ravens and Bucs won), adopting this approach in college football is unwise. This is especially true given the players around Weatherford. He doesn't have a dominant running game and all world defense to rely on as the Raven's did (or like LSU did under Matt Flynn, even though their defense wasn’t as good as the media would lead many to believe).

It is very difficult to sit back and have the defense win games in college football. An approach should not be overhauled with the primary goal being limiting turnovers if the result is to stifle the offense. While his interceptions did decrease from 11 to 3 in 2007, his touchdowns, yards per pass (YpA), and quarterback rating all saw significant declines as well.

Further troubling is the revelation that Weatherford’s 1% Interception rate (1 pick per 100 passes) is not sustainable. We have yet to find a passer who had consecutive seasons under 1.75% as a starting quarterback with at least 310 attempts. Essentially, his approach was unwise and lucky. Employed in a similar fashion this year, one could expect a similar number of TD’s coupled with a significant uptick in interceptions. That said, I don’t think this is the primary reason Drew failed to take advantage of what the defense gave him.

Drew was roundly criticized for his turnovers in 2006 and adopted the defensive style of play to shield himself from criticism.

First, I need to credit a friend of mine for suggesting this theory. It is very plausible. Let’s take a look at quotes from articles that followed the 2006 season:

"Just got done reading the Weatherford report, tremendous. I hope people take note of your examples of risk, or lack there of. He pulled a 180 in his approach, I think in part due to the criticism he took after his 18 interception campaign and also because he realized he can't complete that pass. Must suck to know that one of your means of lessoning pressure is obsolete because you have a serious physical deficiency; arm strength. Imagine being a QB and coming to the startling realization that you can't THROW for shit. Hmmm, I guess I'll do what I can underneath and maybe nobody will notice."

__ Noted FSU Football Expert and former college football player.

“...he has continued to be plagued by interceptions.” Warchant.com Article, August 2007

“...after throwing as many touchdowns (11) last season as interceptions. ...” Bradenton Herald, August 9^th, 2007.

“...No ACC team threw more interceptions (18) last season...” Columbus Ledger-Enquirer, February 25^th, 2007.

Drew clearly took a lot of heat for a bad 2006 season. In part, this was justified because he clearly didn’t improve on his 2005 rookie campaign. On the other hand, he was working under the lame-duck Jeff Bowden, the lasting symbol of the “Nepotism Era.”

It’s easy to see why he wanted to duck criticism. Unfortunately for Seminole Nation, he did so by putting the brakes on the Seminole offense to the tune of 76 punts, only two less than Duke. Everyone wants to avoid criticism and Drew is not different. Changing your style of play to deflect criticism at the expense of the unit you are responsible for, however, is not the right way to go about it. It’s not like Drew had a lot of options though because...

The main reason Weatherford stayed on 12 with the dealer showing 8 is talent.

Over 32 games, we have watched Weatherford throw the football 1105 times. Scouts have as well. Flaws really reveal themselves over that many tosses. Every single coach in the ACC has now noticed #11’s weaknesses. What are his weaknesses?

Drew Weatherford is one of the worst in terms of arm strength among non-option quarterbacks in the BCS. There are some thows most college quarterbacks cannot make. Then there are the throws Weatherford has been unable to complete over 1105 passes. Oh sure, he can make them sometimes, but as we will see later on, those throws are usually against bad teams and typically aren’t made with his usual throwing motion. Every QB can throw the ball downfield once in a while when they really wind up. The ability to make the throws consistently enough within the time frame provided by average pass protection, with the normal throwing motion (not a windup of a crow-hop) separates the men from the boys at the quarterback position. Weatherford is horribly inaccurate on those deep passes. This is pretty obvious to anyone who watches multiple FSU games. His passes flutter, sail, and dive. Once in a while, he does step up and launch one. Some observers see this and believe that he would be just fine if he had average pass protection. This is incorrect He would need exceptional pass protection to be even average on those more difficult throws. I am not arguing that a college quarterback needs to be able to flick the ball 50 yards without stepping. I am arguing that he needs to be able to hit a 15 yard out simply by making a normal stride and firing. A good college quarterback doesn’t have to change his delivery and put everything he has into the throw just to get the ball to the target.

Weatherford also has average footwork at best, and does not read a defense exceptionally well. I personally think that his struggles in diagnosing coverage has contributed to his increased reliance on the dink and dunk. Further, given his preference for the short pass, he would need to have a much higher completion percentage to justify his approach. Weatherford is not the “pinpoint, surgical type” who carves up defenses in small chunks. His 56% completion percentage is not acceptable if he continues to throw predominantly short routes.

If Weatherford wants to find the first coach to expose these glaring weaknesses, he can walk directly to the defensive coaches’ office and speak with none other than FSU linebackers coach Chuck Amato.

Why coach Amato? Because as the defensive minded head coach of North Carolina state, he gave the book on Weatherford to the rest of the ACC. Up until the NC State game of 2005, #11 posted decent YpA’s for a freshman starter. Fast forward to NC State in ’05 and watch FSU lose 15-20. Look closer though, at the way NC state played him and the resulting trends the game set off.

Opponent (2005)	Weatherford’s YPA	FSU Yards per Carry
First 8 opponents	7.6	3.9
NC State	4.7	1.9
@ Clemson	4.3	3.2
@ UF	6.6	1.8
VT	6.4	2.0
Penn State	6	1.0
Avg of Last 5 games	5.6	1.9
After Amato	-2.0 YPA	-2.0 YPC.

Once Amato laid down the plans on how to dominate Weatherford, every team with average or above average personnel followed. How did this work? What was this magical game plan? Why did it also hurt the running game?

I’m not going to fully explain it in full detail here because it wouldn’t make sense to the majority of readers. Essentially though, he played press man, with safeties very close to the line (“crowd the box”), and dared the quarterback with the cap-gun arm to throw an accurate pass of over 10 yards. Knowing that he is totally incapable of consistently executing those passes helped his plan. Amato knew. His plan worked on many levels. First, by having so many guys close to the line of scrimmage, he forced Weatherford read more players for a short pass route than he would normally need to do. Second, he let his secondary bait Weatherford into interceptions. Since Weatherford couldn’t zip the ball downfield, his corners and safeties had ample recovery time to make the interception. #11 saw that his wide receivers were open on their intermediate out routes and deep in-cuts, but he couldn’t deliver the ball to them on a consistent basis due to his considerable physical limitations. When Weatherford attempted to make the throws, he was intercepted 3 times. Third, with so many men close to the line of scrimmage, NC State’s players were able to tackle the receiver as soon as Weatherford delivered the short pass. On the same token, having so many men in the “box” completely shut down the running game (23 rushes for 43 yards.) By daring the QB to do something he could not do, Amato was able to dominate the FSU running game and effectively limit whatever semblance of a passing game remained.

• User Question & Feedback: User "AD" wrote "I think you can further validate your argument by looking at the rushing yards per game when XL was in. Lee had his own pitfalls but rushing numbers were better and sacks were down with him in the game. Great Analysis."
• AD, thank you for commenting on FSUncensored! I hadn't considered this angle, but I went back and researched it as you suggested. To the chart!

Player	Rush	Yards	FSU’s Yards Per Carry
FSU rushing in Weatherford’s 21 games against BCS conference teams since “Amato Game” (18 starts)	547	1480	2.7
FSU rushing in Lee's 5 Starts against BCS conference teams	167	621	3.7
FSU rushing in Weatherford’s 21 games against BCS conference teams since “Amato Game”, with QB rushing REMOVED (18 starts)	442	1416	3.3
FSU rushing in Lee’s 5 starts against BCS conference teams with QB Rushing removed	101	440	4.4

As I suspected, teams had to respect Xavier's arm and his mobility. With Xavier Lee in the game Florida State rushed for 37% more yards per carry! The average carry with Xavier in the game was a full yard greater! Further, when you remove QB rushing yards, the difference between the rushing offenses under Weatherford versus Lee did not change. That means that the rushing numbers are not skewed by Lee’s running ability at all. This also casts some doubt on the idea that FSU was incapable of running because of their poor offensive line. While that line has played poorly, the running game was much more effective under Lee. Thank you AD for the suggestion.

A quick historical aside: Some will claim that Randy Shannon, Miami’s current head coach who was Miami’s defensive coordinator in 2005, really laid the plan. That is true in part, but most other teams believed that they would be unable to duplicate Miami’s success.

• Commenter Interaction: User "Chad" wrote "Another thing - how do you know other teams felt they couldn't replicate Shannon's plan to beat DW? You seem very sure that the coaches didn't follow Shannon but did follow Amato. I'm just curious as to how you came to that conclusion."
• Chad, that's a good question. Thank you for writing in. You have to go keep the time period in perspective. Miami went 5-7 last year, but in 2005 they still had what many considered to be the best defense in the nation. That defense had Bryan Pata (deceased), Baraka Atkins (NFL), Orien Harris (NFL, I think), Calaias Campbell, (situational pass rusher, and again, NFL), Tavares Gooden and Rocky McIntosh (one or both are NFL), Kelly Jennings and Devin Hester (NFL), Jon Beason (NFL), Brandon Merriweather (NFL), and Kenny Phillips (NFL). As you can see, the talent level on defense was insane. In 2005, a lot of coaches assumed that they lacked the personnel to execute Miami's game plan. Amato's plan wasn't unique as much as it was brave. We know that other coaches didn't use this strategy because we watched the 7 games between Miami and NC State. That was our junior year. Amato believed he had the athletes to copy the plan (he didn't), but as it turns out, great athletes weren't required. Decent athletes could do the job. The only real change to Shannon's plan that Amato made was to blitz less. Once other teams saw lowly NC State (spare me the Phillip Rivers stuff) use this technique, it was all over for our Drew.

Amato took Miami’s plan, used it with decent but not great athletes (the team had excellent defensive linemen and little else), and proved that it could work.

After the NC State game, the QB finished the season throwing by 4 Touchdowns and 8 interceptions, after throwing for 14 Touchdowns and 10 interceptions in the first 8 games. This strategy has been repeated against Weatherford in the 24 games since FSU lost to NC State in 2005 with varying levels of success. Generally, however, teams with average or better athletes have been able to duplicate the success using the Amato plan and teams with below average personnel have not been able to produce the same level of success. This is troubling and reveals a greater trend:

Weatherford beats up on bad teams and struggles mightily against everyone else.

Since the NC State game of 2005, Weatherford started 26 games for FSU. 6 of those games were against Non-BCS conference teams and Duke. He was pulled from the Alabama Game and knocked out of the last Va Tech game. As such, I didn't include those in the Win-Loss Record (1 win and 1 loss.) The remaining 18 show a record of ineptitude. Let’s go to the Chart:

Game (Amato game - Present)	W/L	Completions	Attempts	%	Yards	Yards-Per-Attempt	TD	INT	Passer Rating
NC State	LOSS	19	38	50%	181	4.8	1	3	82.9
@ Clemson	LOSS	12	27	44%	117	4.3	0	2	66.0
@ Florida	LOSS	24	41	57%	285	6.8	1	2	112.5
Va Tech (ACC-CG)	WIN	21	35	60%	225	6.4	1	0	123.4
Penn State (Bowl)	LOSS	24	43	56%	258	6.0	1	1	109.2
@ Miami	WIN	16	32	50	175	5.5	0	1	89.7
Clemson	LOSS	11	19	58%	102	8.5	1	0	103.0
@ NC State	LOSS	16	29	55%	249	8.5	2	1	141.1
Boston College	LOSS	32	48	67%	326	6.8	1	2	122.30
Virginia	Mop-up (not starter)	2	6	33%	41	6.8	0	0	90.12
Wake Forest	LOSS	4	15	27%	52	3.5	0	2	29.1
UF	LOSS	16	37	43%	181	4.9	1	3	76.3
UCLA (Bowl)	WIN	43	21	49%	325	7.6	1	1	115.3
@ Clemson	LOSS	17	35	49%	142	4.2	1	0	94.8
@ Colorado	WIN	8	18	44%	126	7.0	0	0	95.7
Alabama	PULLED	7	11	63%	42	3.8	0	0	95.7
@ Boston College	WIN	29	45	64%	354	7.9	2	0	145.2
@ Va Tech	KNOCKED OUT (LOSS)	5	15	33%	46	3.1	0	0	59.1
Maryland	WIN	16	26	61%	204	7.8	1	0	140.1
@ Florida	LOSS	20	37	54%	188	5.1	0	0	96.7
Kentucky (Bowl)	LOSS	22	50	44%	276	5.5	1	2	92.7
Vs. 18 BCS Opponents	6-12	364	628	58%	3895	6.2	15	20	111.6 (NFL 70.9)
Vs. 6 Non-BCS & Duke	6-0	116	171	68%	1374	8.1	11	2	154.2 (NFL 108.7)

That is horrific. He had a poor game in 16 of the 21 games listed above (defining bad game as having a QB Rating of less than 120.) The record above is pretty clear,

Last season one hundred quarterbacks had a better rating than Weatherford's 111.6 career mark against the ACC since the "Amato game."

While some (including # 11) are quick to cite the below average offensive line, this excuse fails to account for the above failures. The offensive line has only allowed 26 sacks on average, per year, under Weatherford’s tenure. This is a very good number. Quarterbacks deal with shaky line play in different ways. Some are able to make quick and intelligent reads and deliver the ball. Others are able to actually exploit the massive holes the defense gives them. Finally, others escape the pocket and run. Since he doesn’t read defenses exceptionally well, is unable to make throws that require an above average difficulty level, and is essentially immobile (182 career rushes for -61 yards), Weatherford does none of these things but rather has elected to deliver the ball prematurely. Note that he is not selecting the high percentage pass, but rather the first available option. We find further evidence of this by looking at his consistently average completion percentage (see first chart). If he elected to be smarter with the ball and take only the high percentage passes, as some suggested was the case, then that fact would be evidenced in his performance. As the first chart shows, upon electing to stop taking any risk, Weatherford did not achieve a spike in completion percentage. Rather, he “achieved” a miniscule 1.25% bump. The bottom line is that FSU can expect poor performance no matter the approach. As sad as it is for a major college program to have to pick their poison, that is the reality. Version 1 will bring more risk with slightly more reward and an improved running game, and version 2 will bring a lot of boredom, frustration, a record number of punts and very few turnovers.

FSU punted 76 times last year. No matter how you slice it, that is pathetic. No BCS championship team has ever had more than 60 punts in a season. A punt represents a failed drive, and really represents his career at FSU.

Where is the "Leadership"? Surely is would show up somewhere! Oh wait, Leadership is important, but when that's the first term used to describe an athlete, it is often code for "lacking talent", or "not very good." 6-12 against BCS teams since Amato laid down the gameplan on how to completely shut down Drew's game? That doesn't cut it at FSU. Or it won't under Jimbo, if he can actually make the call!

As a potential 4-year starter at Florida State, it is sad that Drew Weatherford isn’t even an average starter in his own below average conference. His potential for improvement at this point is negligible. Every snap he takes for this team which is not in contention for a National Title is a snap that is not helping to develop a more talented future FSU QB.

But what about the great win in Boston College?

When the Seminoles marched into Chestnut Hill and knocked off then #2 Boston College, people proclaimed that Weatherford finally was turning into the superstar that they expected him to be. He did play a good game. Several readers wondered why he plays well against Boston College.

Boston college’s defense is very conservative and vanilla. They play bend but don’t break (concede small chunks of yards and don’t allow big plays.) Their defensive line is usually big, strong, but slow and plodding. Their linebackers can usually hit, but they also lack speed. They play to keep everything in front of them. Despite Jamie Silva’s big performance last year, their secondary also suffers from a similar lack of speed. They play very little press, often opting for the a lot of cover 2 and 3. They try to force opponents to chip away and move down the field with long, methodical drives, with the expectation that the offense to get impatient and make mistakes rather than force them into mistakes with pressure. Boston College’s defensive scheme could not be designed to play FSU any worse. It is predicated on forcing an offense to do exactly what Weatherford is most comfortable doing, throwing short passes and attempting to lead long drives. This works against some teams, but Florida State’s wideouts have consistently beaten their defenders after the catch. Weatherford’s strengths align perfectly with Boston College’s plan and that is the primary reason that he has played well against them. Unfortunately for Weatherford, he can’t play against Boston College and Duke every week.

Despite his play against BC, he finished the year with terrible efforts against Virginia Tech (played poorly before being knocked out on a scramble), Florida, and Kentucky (see big chart above).

If a potential 4-year starter on a team that isn’t in contention for the National Championship isn’t head and shoulders above a redshirt sophomore (Christian Ponder), it’s pretty sad. It’s irrelevant whether he could be a good player on an absolutely loaded team that asked him to simply manage the game (possibly could). FSU isn’t that loaded at this point, and his skill set isn’t suited to lead this team to it’s maximum potential. Let’s move forward and allow Weatherford to provide his leadership from the sideline.

User Comments & Questions

• Commenter "Mastergator Wrote "it would seem best to run more bunch formations and rub routes (because Drew is not suddenly going to be blessed with arm-strength). This is easier said than done though, because with so many people around the line of scrimmage bad throws will turn into interceptions more often. So, without a quarterback that can throw deep, or hit consistent timing routes or an offensive line that can take over in the running game, why stick with Drew?"
• If you use Drew, the rub routes clearly are the answer. Coordinator's know this and thus play a bunched zone to counteract the strategy. You are also correct that interceptions are likely to result from rub routes and bunch formations simply due to the sheer amount of defenders around the ball. This is especially true on tipped or batted passes.
• Drew doesn't need to be starting. He has fired the cap gun 1100 times in his FSU career with no evidence of success, development, or promise.

Addressing the concerns of those who feel that deep lobs to Greg Carr count as deep passes for the purposes of this evaluation. They do not and asserting that they do or should reveals the lack of football understanding this site hopes to cure. Many people can throw the jump ball, a lofted, slow moving pass that doesn't require arm strength.

Nurse? Nurse!

We have missed an incredible 86 Starts due to injury over the past 2 years! That is the 2nd most in the nation. Only Stanford (120!) had more. Utah State (The aggies) are the only other team to accrue 70 starts missed due to injury in the L2Y. In comparison, Illinois missed only 5 starts due to injury over the past 2 years. In 2006 and 2007, 15 teams had a season in which their starters missed less than 6 total games due to injury. Put another way, FSU's injury luck over the past 2 years has been 1700% worse than that of Illinois.

According to Phil Steele of Philsteele.com, teams that suffered more than 36 starts in any given year due to injury improved their record 81% of the time! That stat increases if you take out teams who suffered similar or worse injury numbers in the subsequent year (what happened to FSU last year).

I think this startling number and the resulting poor play of our beloved Noles over the past several years reflects the true importance of substituting fresh players (NOT on the