Thoughts on Wake Forest @ Baylor:

Last night I watched the Wake Forest game with great interest. The Deac's have a 2-game winning streak over FSU. They won a close game in Winston-Salem last year, and helped to usher Jeff Bowden out the door by winning in Tallahassee in 2006, 30-0.

I've been pretty vocal about not believing in Wake's offense. I do think their defense will be pretty good, considering they have a lot of senior starters and some NFL talent (for once).

Last night, however, I was underwhelmed by Wake's offensive attack. Here are my observations.

1. Skinner is an accurate passer.

2. Baylor seemed very concerned with the deep ball, and skinner picked them apart. He threw 36 times for 220 yards. That is not very impressive. Baylor needed to dare him to beat them deep. It was very evident that he would repeatedly take 5 yard completion after 5 yard completion if they gave it to him, which they did.

3. The margin of victory wasn't really indicative of Wake's play, as it was Baylor's ineptness.

3. Baylor committed 2 turnovers where Wake basically did nothing. First, Alphonso Smith picks off a ball that literally hits off the wideout's hands (first), and helmet (second), before Smith picked it. Wake didn't force that turnover. They didn't bait him into a bad throw or pressure him into a poor pass. The wideout just gave a pathetic effort on a very easy catch. This was in Baylor's zone, and led to a Wake score.

Second, Baylor's qb took a snap inside his 15 yard line, rolled left, and DROPPED THE BALL, WITHOUT BEING TOUCHED! Again, the ball rolled to Wake. Please explain me how wake forced that turnover.

5. Wake's running game really struggled. Adams and Pendergrass (their main running game), had 28 carries for 71 yards. That is bad. Wake's offensive line really struggled in rub blocking. Baylor's front 7 is Syracuse bad, and Wake struggled to block them, which is consistent with what we've been hearing out of Wake camp.

Their overall running numbers were really inflated because Baylor couldn't tackle a speedster on a 55 yard run.

6. Wake pass protected pretty well. Baylor has no threats off the edge, but nevertheless, give Wake's guys credit for keeping Skinner clean.

7. I hate to keep harping on this, but Baylor's plan was to not get embarassed (didn't work because of their ridiculous turnovers in their own zone). They let Wake have almost everything short.

8. Wake had ONE passing play of more than 15 yards. Now, as I noted above, Baylor sat back in cover three a lot, but these Wide Receivers are not impressive, even against Baylor.

9. Wake can play some defense. They tackled well for the most part, even though Baylor's second half QB was very fast.

10. This game is deceiving because it was extremely choppy. Baylor had FIVE turnovers (3 fumbles lost and 2 picks). Wake did force 2 of these, but the other three are stuff that top 50 teams don't do on a consistent basis.

These play-by-play entries tell a good story:

4th-8, Bay22 14:16 D. Epperson punt to the Baylor 36, no return.

COMMENT: Baylor's first went 14 yards.

Wake Forest - 11:23
1st-10, Wake38 11:23 J. Adams rushed to the left for 2 yard gain
2nd-8, Wake40 10:53 R. Skinner incomplete pass to the left
3rd-8, Wake40 10:44 R. Skinner passed to M. Williams to the right for 15 yard gain
1st-10, Bay45 10:29 J. Adams rushed up the middle for 2 yard gain
2nd-8, Bay43 9:54 R. Skinner passed to M. Williams to the right for 9 yard gain
1st-10, Bay34 9:41 D. Boldin rushed to the right for 8 yard gain
2nd-2, Bay26 9:14 J. Adams rushed up the middle for 3 yard gain
1st-10, Bay23 8:59 R. Skinner passed to D. Boldin down the middle for 4 yard gain
2nd-6, Bay19 8:33 R. Skinner passed to D. Boldin to the left for 3 yard gain
3rd-3, Bay16 7:55 J. Adams rushed to the right for 3 yard gain
1st-10, Bay13 7:37 J. Adams rushed up the middle for 1 yard gain
2nd-9, Bay12 7:05 R. Skinner passed to C. Brinkman down the middle for 12 yard touchdown. S. Swank made PAT

COMMENT: Wake's drive starts on Baylor's 36. Baylor plays soft, and Wake drives for a touchdown with 11 plays, only one of which went 10+ yards. No pressure applied. Soft zone heavy.

3rd-9, Bay41 4:11 A. Smith intercepted K. Freeman for 1 yard
Wake Forest - 4:06
1st-10, Bay48 4:06 B. Pendergrass rushed to the left for 1 yard loss
2nd-11, Bay49 3:35 R. Skinner rushed to the right for 4 yard gain
3rd-7, Bay45 2:52 R. Skinner passed to M. Williams to the right for 7 yard gain
1st-10, Bay38 2:25 R. Skinner rushed up the middle for 7 yard loss. R. Skinner fumbled. B. Pendergrass recovered fumble
2nd-17, Bay45 1:50 R. Skinner rushed to the right for 9 yard gain
3rd-8, Bay36 1:17 R. Skinner passed to B. Wooster to the right for 7 yard gain
4th-1, Bay29 1:10 B. Pendergrass rushed up the middle for 4 yard gain
1st-10, Bay25 0:52 R. Skinner passed to D. Boldin to the left for 5 yard gain
2nd-5, Bay20 0:20 R. Skinner passed to B. Wooster down the middle for 14 yard gain
2nd Quarter
Wake Forest continued
1st-6, Bay6 15:00 B. Pendergrass rushed to the right for 3 yard gain
2nd-3, Bay3 14:27 B. Pendergrass rushed to the left for 3 yard touchdown. S. Swank made PAT

COMMENT: This interception is the one I commented about above. Wake didn't do shit to get the pick, the wideout literally let it hit him in both hands. Again, wake goes 11 plays, with only one being more than 10 yards. Baylor didn't even attempt to challenge Wake's wideouts.

Baylor - 8:50
1st-10, Bay4 8:50 J. Finley rushed up the middle for 7 yard gain
2nd-3, Bay11 8:14 R. Griffin rushed up the middle for no gain. R. Griffin fumbled. H. Haynes recovered fumble
Wake Forest - 8:08
1st-10, Bay11 8:08 B. Pendergrass rushed up the middle for 3 yard gain
2nd-7, Bay8 7:43 R. Skinner passed to C. Brinkman down the middle for 8 yard touchdown. S. Swank made PAT

COMMENT: Griffin was not touched on the fumble. He literally took the snap, took 2 steps left, and dropped the ball. Wake takes over at Baylor's 11. 14 points off of turnovers they had no hand in forcing. Pure Dominance ;)

Wake Forest - 7:36
Wake kicked off, M. Baker returned kickoff for 9 yards. M. Baker fumbled. J. La Mar recovered fumble
COMMENT: Baylor fumbles the kickoff. They look inept. Wake takes over on Baylor's 17.

Guys, please watch this game for yourselves before passing judgment on Wake. I am not buying into this team yet. We can dominate their wideouts, and they will struggle to block us, even though we are extremely thin at DT. There is no way we sit in cover three all day and let Skinner filet us in 5 yard chunks. In the words of some TV Infomercials, "I'm still skeptical."

How did Georgia deal with offensive line uncertainty heading into 2007?

kk'Nole fans everywhere are scared stiff about the inexperienced offensive line. I've repeatedly said that the line will be better this year than last year, since these players give a lot more effort and fit his system better.

Then I remembered that Georgia had a very inexperienced offensive line going into last year. I read Dawgsports.com regularly. Dawgsports provides some of the best SEC and Georgia analysis. I emailed T. Kyle King, the creator of DawgSports, and asked him if he would answer some questions about UGA's offensive line prospects heading into last year. Even though I am down on Georgia this year, compared to most, T. Kyle agreed. Our conversation follows. A big thanks to T. Kyle and Dawgsports. Our conversation follows. I'll add my thoughts later.

Going into the 2007 season, was the offensive line the biggest concern on the mind of Georgia fans?

Without question. Both veterans were trying out new positions, as guards Fernando Velasco and Chester Adams were moved to center and right tackle, respectively. Otherwise, it was a lot of new faces, with a new position coach leading them, to boot.

The one apparent positive to the situation was the fact that Stacy Searels, a successful and respected offensive line coach from LSU, didn’t have to break his charges of habits learned under his predecessor. Since Searels took over an inexperienced line, he was able to implement his system from the outset, which actually may have eased the coaching transition.

What was the makeup of UGA’s line on opening day 2007, experience wise?

Going into the season, did you think they fit your system well?

Were they highly touted coming out of high school?

Due to the change in position coaches as well as personnel, Bulldog Nation was in “wait and see” mode regarding the players’ suitability for the system Searels brought with him from Baton Rouge, although his record with the Bayou Bengals (who finished first in the SEC in total offense and in scoring offense in 2006) gave fans cause for hope.

The Bulldogs’ opening day lineup against Oklahoma State consisted of true freshman Trinton Sturdivant at left tackle, redshirt freshman Chris Davis at left guard, senior Fernando Velasco at center, junior Scott Haverkamp at right guard, and senior Chester Adams at right tackle.

Both players on the left side of the line were making their first career starts, although both started all 13 games at their positions last year. Velasco came in with 13 consecutive starts at split guard under his belt and started 13 more at center. Adams, who finished with 23 total starts for his career, started all but one game at tackle last season; he was relieved for the Western Carolina game by true freshman Clint Boling, who took over at right guard for the remainder of the fall. Boling’s 11 straight starts also represent his entire career on the first team.

Sturdivant came out of high school as a USA Today All-USA Second Team selection and Scout.com’s No. 18 offensive tackle in the country. Davis was an Atlanta Journal-Constitution All-State Honorable Mention and a member of Rivals.com’s Georgia Top 50. Velasco was one of the Journal-Constitution’s Georgia Top 50. Haverkamp came out of Silver Lake, Kans., as a two-time All-Mideast League selection. Adams was rated as Rivals.com’s No. 32 offensive tackle nationally and Boling was among the Journal-Constitution’s Georgia Top 50. In short, all were solid players, but only Sturdivant and Adams were highly touted nationally.

How did UGA end up so young along the offensive line to start the 2007 season?

Fortunately, it was not a situation such as that which occurred in 2003, when too many consecutive recruiting classes which neglected to include an adequate number of offensive linemen caught up to the Bulldogs. The 2007 line lacked starting experience in part because the 2006 line had a great deal of it.

The 2006 Georgia line featured 13-game starters Ken Shackleford at split tackle and Nick Jones at center, as well as 11-game starter Daniel Inman at tight tackle and four-game starter Michael Turner at tight guard and tight tackle. All four were seniors.

Georgia lost depth due to a variety of circumstances which kept some players off the field or resulted in their departure from the team, but the Bulldogs signed seven offensive linemen in 2003, two in 2004, one in 2005, six in 2006, eight in 2007, and three in 2008. Obviously, in retrospect, it would have been nice to have signed a few more linemen in the 2004 and 2005 classes (who were in their fourth and third years with the program, respectively, in 2007), but the commitment to signing linemen shown in signing six or more of them in three of the last six recruiting classes is evident.

Many in the media claim that UGA had a very good offensive line last year. I’m sure those same pundits weren’t predicting that at the beginning of the season. What are your thoughts on the 2007 Bulldogs line? What does their performance say about the players who left from 2006?

With all due respect to former Georgia offensive coordinator Neil Callaway, the lesson of the 2007 Bulldog line is that coaching matters a great deal. Stacy Searels took a group of players who had considerable talent but scant experience and molded them into a functioning unit.

I in no way wish to bash Callaway, who, by all accounts, is a good man and a good coach, but I believe the Bulldogs traded up when he got the UAB head coaching job. What the performance of the 2007 line says about such 2006 stalwarts as Inman, Jones, Shackleford, and Turner is that last year’s offensive line was better coached.

Georgia started off the season hosting Oklahoma State and South Carolina (whose defense was loaded last year before being decimated by injuries). Did the offensive line struggle early on? Why or why not? How difficult was it for them to start off against two pretty decent teams?

The first two weeks of last season proved the axiom that things are never as good as they seem and things are never as bad as they seem. Against the Cowboys, Georgia held the ball for 36:29, converted seven of 15 third downs, and generated 376 yards of total offense. Although the Bulldogs managed to outgain the Gamecocks 341-314 the following week, the Red and Black were held to 3-of-18 on third down and the South Carolina defense was in the backfield all night, blowing up plays with regularity.

While watching the Oklahoma State game, you never would have known that none of Georgia’s offensive linemen had previous starting experience at their respective positions, but the South Carolina game made their inexperience abundantly clear. Of course, the Cowboys’ strength was on offense and the Gamecocks’ strength was on defense, so it figured that the second game would have been the one that exposed the weaknesses on the Georgia offensive front. Accordingly, the Bulldogs’ struggles came early, but not immediately.

When did they finally click? Can you tie this to an event, a game, or a series of games (possibly against inferior competition)? Do you think they put it all together earlier if they had, say, two I-AA opponents to open the season against?

I don’t know that there was a single specific point in the season at which the offensive line put it together so much as there was a point in the season at which the offense as a whole put it all together. The Tennessee game (a 35-14 loss in Knoxville), which was by far the Bulldogs’ worst performance of the season and arguably their worst of the Mark Richt era, wasn’t so much a problem of inexperience as it was a lack of preparedness and intensity. The Volunteers simply were ready for everything Georgia had to offer, which was a triumph of game-planning and execution rather than a simple act of overwhelming underclassmen.

Senior leadership is a cliché, but the presence of an upperclassman in the middle of the line definitely provided stability and helped the line come together. However, the entire offense had to mature, which was not always a function of youth; the largest spark by far came from a redshirt freshman, Knowshon Moreno.

If pressed to pinpoint an instant at which the entire offense gelled, I would point to the timeout during which the booth officials reviewed a play in the Ole Miss game. At that point, the team got into a rhythm . . . literally. The music (though not the lyrics) to Soulja Boy’s “Crank That” was played over the stadium loudspeakers, and, when the cameras caught Moreno and some of his teammates performing the accompanying dance on the sidelines---a dance which was being performed in the stands by the students and younger alumni, and which was taken up by some of the defensive players on the field awaiting the verdict from the booth---the energy in Sanford Stadium went to a new level and what had been a nip-and-tuck contest turned into a rout as Georgia scored the last 28 points on the way to a 45-17 blowout.

The numbers bear that out: Georgia was held in the ballpark of 130 to 150 rushing yards in each of the Red and Black’s first four games before exploding for 328 against the Rebels. After that, aside from an uncharacteristically poor effort in Knoxville in every phase of the contest, the Bulldogs tended to be more in the range of 180 to 200 yards per game on the ground.

I definitely don’t believe that facing an easier early-season slate would have caused Georgia to put it together faster. The sense of urgency that accompanied the knowledge that the team would be facing a legitimate opening opponent in Oklahoma State caused the team to become a cohesive unit sooner rather than later. My son and I were fortunate enough to be given a tour of the Georgia weight room in May 2007 and some of the players I saw working out there were wearing “Georgia v. Oklahoma State September 1, 2007” T-shirts. I would be willing to wager that none of the players are wearing “Georgia v. Georgia Southern August 30, 2008” T-shirts today.

Although there were growing pains in 2007, the low points were nothing like those experienced in 2006, in which the Bulldogs lost four games in five weeks at midseason after opening against Western Kentucky and playing UAB in the season’s second home game. Similarly rapid development was evident in the previous seasons of the Mark Richt era, in which the Red and Black went to three SEC championship games and two Sugar Bowls in 2002, 2003, and 2005 (when Georgia opened against Clemson twice and Boise State once).

Look at it this way . . . if playing inferior competition truly helped a team to improve, then why did Georgia manage 20 points and 368 yards on 66 plays against Vanderbilt yet rack up 42 points and 413 yards on 62 snaps against Florida?

T. Kyle King

Dawg Sports

http://www.dawgsports.com

Update on the missing 5 and thoughts about the new NCAA rules.

MIA

• Mincey (important DT), Graham (possible TE contributor), and Dunham (H-Back type) are still not enrolled at FSU. Their transcripts have not been approved at this point. Today was the first day of classes. I am about 99% sure that they will not participate in FSU football this year. Let's break down the impact:
• Mincey was projected to be a starter, he was very talented. I am very disappointed that he could not meet FSU's easy standards. I have known many people who don't attend class, don't have access to tutors, who party daily, and keep more than a 2.75 GPA. From a football fan angle, we need to have programs that can get these type kids into very easy classes. A few kids receiving watered down degrees every year doesn't damage my degree in my opinion.
• UPDATE: Mincey made the grades and is back! Retaining Mincey while losing Graham & Dunham (see below) is the best possible thing that could happen.
  
• Graham was a trouble maker and a liability. I am glad he is no longer on the team. He had decent, but not spectacular talent. This will free up another scholarship. I will again restate my view on thinning our roster. If you are not poised to make a solid contribution by the time you are a junior because of your talent or work ethic, and not due to a position logjam, I want to cut you.
  
• Dunham was a total bust. A relic of the Nepotism Era, Dunham's progress consistently disappointed observers. This is a good loss.
• Jermaine Thomas returned to practice today after an academic related scare. This was not related to cheating and was a qualifications issue. This is an important break for FSU.

New Rules

• The play clock will now start immediately once the ball is blown dead as opposed to when the referee blew the play ready. The clock consists of 40 seconds, not 25. Also, except within 2 minutes, when the player runs out of bounds, the clock will start upon the reset of the ball and not the snap.
  
• Impact: Game play will be more consistent across the conferences. I expect there to be about 5 fewer plays per game. I've based this off of conversations with other college football guys. If we see 64 plays per game instead of 72, expect scoring to be down some. Totals players should take note. I really think this favors teams leading at the end of the game, since the clock will run immediately instead of waiting for the referee to spot the ball.
  

• The NCAA clarified the rules on chop blocking in an attempt to protect players.
• Impact: Good. This is absolutely a direct result of the ridiculous block that Auburn laid on Glen Dorsey of LSU.
• FSU Impact: this could hurt FSU and similarly Trickett- styled lines since they frequently employ the cut block. Cut blocks sometimes border on chop blocks.
  

Must FSU Release the NOA? A response to Bianchi.

The Orlando Sentinel's Mike Bianchi slammed FSU for not releasing the Notice of Allegations.

Florida is governed by the Government in the Sunshine Law.

Let's have a little Q & A.

Q. What is a public record?
A. The Florida Supreme Court has determined that public records are all materials made or received by an agency in connection with official business which are used to perpetuate, communicate or formalize knowledge. They are not limited to traditional written documents. Tapes, photographs, films and sound recordings are also considered public records subject to inspection unless a statutory exemption exists.

Q. Does the Notice of Allegations from the NCAA to FSU qualify as a public record?
A. Well, the document is a material, which was received, by an agency (FSU), in connection with official business, which was used to perpetuate, communicate, and formalize knowledge. The Notice of Allegations does qualify as a public record.

Q. When does a document sent to a public agency become a public document?
A. As soon as a document is received by a public agency, it becomes a public record, unless there is a legislatively created exemption which makes it confidential and not subject to disclosure.

So the document is a public record upon receipt. It looks like Florida Law requires FSU to release the documents. At this point, they have denied those requests.

Q. Does an agency have to explain why it denies access to public records?
A. A custodian of a public record who contends that the record or part of a record is exempt from inspection must state the basis for that exemption, including the statutory citation. Additionally, when asked, the custodian must state in writing the reasons for concluding the record is exempt.

FSU does have the right to refuse to release the documents if they have a good faith basis that the requested information falls under an exemption, whether statutorily or judicially created. They have to specify which exemption they believe the record falls under. They also have to disclose why they believe the record falls under the exemption

What exemption is FSU citing? Bianchi's story fails to disclose the specific exemption. This is poor journalism by him. He most likely knows what exemption FSU cited when they denied his request. They would have responded to the attorney that represents the Orlando Sentinel. By failing to include the citation to the authority cited by FSU, Bianchi appears to be hiding something as well. His article is riddled with assumptions that may or may not be true.

UPDATE: Andrew Carter provided the specific exemption:

“Because this matter remains an ongoing confidential investigation under Section 1012,91, Florida Statutes, no further comment or provision of records maintained for the purposes of the investigation is anticipated until the investigation is concluded. Further, many of the records involved, including the June 10 correspondence from the NCAA [the NOA] that has become a record maintained by the University, contains confidential and exempt personally identifiable student education records and reports information pursuant to Section 1002.22(3)(d), Florida Statutes, which gives students a right of privacy ‘in their records. The federal Family Educational Rights and Privacy Act (FERPA), 20 U.S.C. § 1232g, also protects the privacy of student education records.”

Thanks to Andrew for providing that. FSU is fully within its rights to claim this exception. If someone believes they have wrongly claimed the exception, they should challenge it in a court of law and the judge will decide whether the documents fall under the exception. To my knowledge, nobody has sued FSU over this matter yet. If this matter was really as cut and dry as many in the media make it out to be, someone would have sued months ago, the case would already have been decided, and this would be a non issue. Since the case has not been decided, it seems as if there is some uncertainty. FSU chose to employ this legal strategy, for whatever reason, and they will continue to maintain their stance until someone challenges them in a Florida court.

Bianchi's slant on the situation, however, isn't relevant to the issue of whether FSU is rightfully withholding the documents. While I don't have the specific citation they are claiming, the general idea is that FSU is not releasing the documents because they believe the documents contain protected student information. Some student information is protected under privacy laws. Under Florida Law, agencies are not required to create new reports or information, however An agency that claims an exception based on student privacy, is probably under a duty to release the information in a non-intrusive form. The commonly accepted practice by universities is to release the information with student names and identifying information redacted. FSU has promised to release the information once they file their revised response to the NCAA. The estimated date of release, then, is somewhere around September 12th. This battle could end up in court if the parties requesting the information want to press the issue. It is unlikely, however, that their issue would be decided by a court before September 12th, so their best strategy at this point is to wait 'till the 12th. Also, there is no guarantee that FSU will be forced to turnover the documents. A judge could easily side with the 'Noles and agree that the documents fall within the claimed exemption.

Q. What are the possible downsides to FSU's tactics?
A. Plenty. Obviously, when you fight the media, you will lose the public relations battle. The "taxpayers deserve their information" argument is very powerful and everyone identifies as a taxpayer. FSU's public relations has been horrible in the past few years and the administration is increasingly adopting an anti-media stance. From closing practices, to vague injury reports (upper body injury), and now this. Whether FSU would win in court is debatable. That they are losing in the court of public opinion, is not.

If someone does take FSU to court over this and win, FSU could be in some trouble. FSU could be ordered to produce the documents at their own expense (usually the requesting party must pay) and pay the requesting party's attorneys fees and court costs. If the withholding of the documents is found to be willful, the court could impose a civil penalty and possibly charge the presiding official with a crime.

Q. Why doesn't the Sentinel make the NCAA produce the documents?
A. Despite how they are sometimes portrayed, the NCAA is not a governmental organization. They do not fall under the jurisdiction of Florida's Sunshine Laws. As a private organization, it would be almost impossible to make the NCAA turn over the documents.

If you have any other questions about FSU's sunshine laws, post them in the comments section and I will attempt to answer them.

The 5 Missing guys...

As you may know, FSU is missing 5 guys from practice for Non-Injury reasons. Thankfully there have been no serious injuries to date, in stark contrast to the 'Noles recent past. That said, there are 5 guys who are not in camp. I'll quickly go over each of them to let everyone know what their status is.

Tavarres Pressley, RB. Pressley was the #2 rated JUCO back this past year. He has had a lot of problems qualifying. While I usually don't like the chances of JUCO kids getting in, Pressley did say that he got his qualifying grade from my summer course. The problem is that his transcript is apparently mixed up in the transcripts of all the other students. I''d really prefer there was some fast-tracking available for these kids. His transcript was help up for 2 weeks but now it appears Jeff Cameron is reporting that Pressley is in, which was confirmed by FSU's SI office. This is excellent news. He won't be able to wear pads for 5 days due to the NCAA acclimation process (helmet and shorts for 3 days, shells for 2).

He is a good runner with solid hands and excellent vision. A little over 6 foot and 210-215ish. Remember that running back is a position that doesn't require much practice. I expect him to take some carries from Antone, offer FSU another option at TB, and improve FSU's depth. Pressley isn't a burner, but he does get good separation. He looks like he can be a productive back. This is especially important considering the lack of depth at the position and the Jermaine Thomas situation, discussed below.

Justin Mincey is an excellent defensive tackle prospect who was a music appreciator (will miss first 3 games) and had to take some classes this summer at TCC to stay eligible. FSU really needs him for the Wake Forest game. Some considered him to be the best interior defensive lineman on the team in the Spring. I never expect a kid who couldn't hack it academically at Florida State and had to cheat on an Online Music History Appreciation exam to be able to go and make a good grade at community college in the summer and return to the roster. Don't expect him back, but be pleasantly surprised if he is. With the disinformation approach that FSU athletics now employs, their silence on the matter is disheartening. We really need Moses McCray to step it up and get fully healthy.

Matt Dunham, H-Back/ TE/ RB. Dunham is a Junior hybrid H-Back/ TE, and at this point in his career, he has not shown much promise despite being very highly ranked. Once again, the same rule applies: I never expect a kid who couldn't hack it academically at Florida State to be able to go and make a good grade at community college in the summer and return to the roster. Personally, I hope he doesn't make it back. He wouldn't contribute much this season, and it clears up a scholarship we can use on a player that the new administration actually wants.

Charlie Graham, TE, Jr. Graham is actually a promising TE who would be a junior this year. Graham has been in and out of trouble throughout his 2 year career at FSU. He was involved in a gun discharge incident over the summer. He also has to take classes at TCC this summer to get back on the team. Troubled kid, decent but not great talent, not expected to be a starter even if he had remained on the team. Let's apply the rule: I never expect a kid who couldn't hack it academically at Florida State to be able to go and make a good grade at community college in the summer and return to the roster. FSU hasn't had an arrest in almost 4 months and personally I hope that he doesn't make it back. Like Mincey and Dunham, his status is in limbo pending TCC's grades and registrar approval.

Jermaine Thomas, RB, fr. Thomas is a highly touted prospect. He practiced with FSU for a week but is now not practicing with the team. What is up? Academics. Something from his academic resume was flagged or reviewed. Most expect him back on the team and I wouldn't worry about this kid yet. He has the best chance to make it back out of the 4 still out there.

08/17/08 E-MailBag

Well, I'd promised a mailbag for a while now and here it is.

User Chad wrote: Myron Rolle - liability in coverage or victim of scheme/teammates?

I'd have to say that he is both. Rolle was burned last year and there are serious questions about the fluidity in his hips and his top-end speed. That said, he is rated as the #1 overall strong safety prospect for the 2009 draft by NFL DraftScout and Mickey Andrew's defense has really slipped in the past few years. If NFl Scouts think he is the best safety prospect out there, but he isn't a superstar player for FSU, it's reasonable to conclude that they believe that he will either improve immensly at a later date, or that he is already good and misused by Mickey Andrews. In either case, they think that their coaches can make it happen. I think he can be a decent NFL safety, and a very good college safety. Mickey needs to use him more on Blitzes in my opinion, and put him in more robber positions so he can intimidate people and make some serious hits.

More from Chad: Antone Smith - why has his YPC gone down? Will he pull a Washington/Booker and be better at the next level than now? If so, why? Is the line that bad or can he just not hit the holes?

As is so often the case, health is so important. I don't think Antone was healthy for most of last year. He was clearly hobbled in some games by his shoulder injury and turf toe. If you haven't had turf toe, I seriously suggest reading this excellent article from the ESPN.com Training Room. Antone killed Kentucky last year in the Bowl game, and he has really shown a great burst to date in training camp. The offensive line hasn't been good, and there haven't always been holes to hit. As I already talked about, this offensive line will probably be better this year. When healthy, Antone has always produced and I fully expect him to have a big year. As for the NFL, he seems a little small for that level.

Commenter Arthronole Wrote: Regarding your Return of the Sack article, I was wondering what your thoughts were regarding the overall offensive scheme changes in college football in general and how has it impacted FSU's success with QB pressure & sacks? FSU has or will see many variations of the option offense(spread @ UF, Orbit @ WF, Wishbone @ Ga Tech, standard @ Va Tech

Andrew's defense has clearly slipped in the past few years, specifically his pass defense. He had always recruited excellent defensive backs, but recently his recruits have been flops for the most part. I criticize him for his lack of creativity and his inflexibility. Some say that his defense is entirely predicated on getting serious pressure on the qb. Great. What if you don't get that pressure? We need to have more variety. We really don't disguise our coverages well.

On a positive note, I do think that FSU will eventually defend the spread well. Teams that blitz frequently get shredded by the spread scheme which makes them come from a greater distance and presents real issues when they try to disguise who is coming and from where. FSU doesn't blitz excessively, and hopefully they can get back to getting pressure form the front four.

FSU owns the triple option and with Miami, they were largely responsible for the disappearance of the triple option from the major college football scene. It's tougher now to prepare for the triple option because modern players aren't familiar with the attack and it's difficult to simulate the attack at full speed with the scout team.

As for Wake Forest, FSU lived in the Deacon's backfield last year and I fully expect them to return to dominating Wake very soon. FSU's athletes are just better than Wake's and now that FSU knows they have to focus on Wake's unique scheme, I expect them to come strong. This year will be especially tough for Wake since FSU will dominate their wideouts (all new) and their offensive line has not impressed in camp to date.

FSU will always be aggressive on defense, but they need to play smarter overall. Don't be aggressive for no reason. Read, then react.

Anynymous wrote: I'm not a coach and haven't seen Jody Allen coaching the ends. But it wouldn't suprise me if your speculation is correct. Bobby Bowden has a history of taking yeoman coaches and letting them coach positions they never even played before, much less coached (Jimmy Heggins ring a bell?). How can a former under-talented offensive lineman like Allen who is a grad asst. one year suddenly become a DE coach the next, ready to teach the finer points of technique, balance, steps, etc? We simply do not have the talent and depth to paper over subpar coaching anymore. This program will never truly turn around until Bobby takes his naps somewhere else and Jimbo is finally able to clean house!

We already said that Jody Allen needs to go. Obviously he is underqualified to coach defensive ends at the major college level. I agree that Bobby is a current net negative for the program. That said, we are in a better spot than we would have been had Jimbo left for West Virginia. I fully expect Jimbo to clean house and get rid of the last remnants of the Nepotism Era, but the key now is to continue to get this program ready for the 2010-2012 transition seasons.

Anthronole wrote, in regard to the They're Baaack... ACC OFFENSE EDITION:Does anyone else think the talk of the OL, while a concern, has been blown out of proportion? It's not like FSU is the only school in the ACC with only 2 returning starting OL. Clemson is as well but they get picked to win the ACC?

Yes, it is being overblown, especially when you consider that FSU gets 2 warm up games and won't face a hostile crowd until October (Miami). Early reports on the line have been very encouraging. I'm not blind to the youth, and I do expect some struggles, but other teams will struggle as well. I cited Wake's offensive line as a primary factor for my belief that FSU will soundly beat them this year even with the suspensions.

Anthronole wrote: Back in the JB era, the offensive was surprisingly high scoring compared to the rest of the ACC, but pass heavy. Even though scoring was way down last year, the offense was more balanced under JF.

Schedule, Schedule, Schedule! You always have to consider the schedule! FSU's 2007 schedule was very difficult, and their 2006 schedule was a cakewalk. Comparing those two years isn't really fair to Jimbo or Jeff. I saw a lot of improvement from the offense in 2007, and balance is just one factor that I could highlight.

Finally, Chili commented: I added your site to our blogroll over at DFIG. Bill at Scalp Em introduced me to the site and I read it daily. Excellent analysis. Keep up the good work.

Thanks Chili. For our readers who don't know, DFIG is a great Clemson blog. It stands for Danny Ford is God, and you can find them here, or in our blogroll (at right). I'm sure we will discuss the big conference showdown with them soon.

More on Weatherford Report, and a coming mailbag.

08/05/08: I'm having a hard time writing quality stuff right now. I do expect to have 2 pieces up by the end of this weekend, in addition to the stuff I mentioned below. By the way, Florida won in the LLWS over South Dakota 10-0 in 4 innings.

I finished the stuff I was working on for work. It's now time to get back to bringing you guys the 'Nole Insight I know you come here for.

• I added a bit about the Little League World Series. I know it's not FSU related, but hopefully you will enjoy it.

• Injuries are mounting in college football. I added the most significant one to the post I made earlier this year on FSU's shocking injury record.

• I updated The Weatherford Report. New Charts and Graphs! Also, why Drew beats up on Boston College!
  

• The Daniel Allyn Hood research is coming along very well. I appreciate every one's help with that. Still though, I plan to sit on that story and unleash it during one of our first 2 game weeks.

• I conducted an interview with an expert on the Georgia Bulldogs. They started 3 freshmen on their offensive line last year. Expect that in the next few days.

• I know I've promised a Mailbag for a while, and that is coming as well. I often work on several projects at once and I need to stop that. Do you like the idea of weaving user comments into the articles? Let me know.
  

• FSUncensored put their entry into 1270theteam's J.C.S. Poll (The official college football poll of the Jeff Cameron Show). I can tell you that UGA and to a lesser extent USC will be dropping some after suffering some injuries.
  
• I'm considering going on Jeff's show on a weekly basis to discuss the 'Noles, still need to talk to Jeff about it though. Wouldn't it be a shock to hear Jeff be the more reserved guy in a Florida State interview? If you don't already listen to Jeff on a daily basis at work, you really should.
  

• Hines and I run another Blog where we keep track of all the college football injuries. He's in the middle of a move right now, but usually we update on Monday and Thursday.

• Also in the works: An article profiling who the Noles can least afford to lose to injury, from worst to first. This isn't a "best player list", it's a "Most value over replacement player" list, or MVRP.
  

They're Baaaack.... ACC Offense Edition

Team	CLEM	FSU	WAKE	MD	BC	NCST	VT	UNC	MIA	GT	DUKE	UVA
QB Returning?	YES	YES?	YES	YES	NO	YES?	YES	YES	NO	NO*	YES	NO
ACC Rank: Points per Game	2nd	7th	3rd	6th	4th	11th	1st	8th	10th	9th	12th	5th
ACC Rank: Total Offense Yards	2nd	3rd	8th	7th	1st	9th	5th	10th	11th	4th	12th	6th
Total Yards Lost	136	1126	2705	2287	2981	1420	3395	0	1356	2640	1230	1178
% of Total Yards Returning	97%	77%	39%	48%	50%	65%	27%	100%	64%	?	62%	73%
ACC Rank: Rush YPG	3rd	7th	8th	5th	10th	11th	2nd	9th	4th	1st	12th	6th
ACC Rank: Rush YPC	2nd	3rd	10th	7th	9th	11th	4th	8th	6th	1st	12th	5th
Rushing Yards Lost	0	235	814	1573	1405	0	1104	0	193	1645	345	279
% of Total Rushing Yards Returning	100%	90%	56%	12%	0%	100%	41%	100%	89%	?	55%	84%
Receiving Yards Lost	136	955	1891	714	1576	1420	2291	0	1166	995	885	899
% of Total Receiving Yards Returning	96%	70%	26%	73%	65%	52%	17%	100%	43%	?	64%	64%
OLinemen Starters Returning	1	2	2	4	2	3	4	4	2	?	4	3
Sacks Against	35	22	28	40	22	26	54	37	25	22	45	33
Combined OLine starts of projected Line	21	23	24	73	41	45	70	64	72	?	70	48

Some Observations:

Clemson will easily be the best offense in the ACC this year. They have offensive line issues, but their collection of skill position talent is amazing. Additionally, they have the only upperclassman QB prospect in Cullen Harper. It is interesting to note that despite the attention paid to FSU's inexperience on the OLIne, Clemson's projected starting 5 have fewer career starts than the Seminole's 5.

Florida State has the best collection of receivers in the ACC. I also found it curious that the 2 teams who are likely to have the top offense in the league have the most inexperienced offensive lines.

Keeping with the trend, Wake's offensive line is questionable as well. The other issue that jumps out at me is the huge loss of offensive weapons. Wake lost 60% of their rushing and receiving yards. Losing Micah Andrews, Kenny Moore, and Kevin Marion hurts a lot more than people may realize. I have to think Wake will struggle early behind a new offensive line while their WR's get jammed into the turf. The loss of TE Tereshinski will also hamper the offense. Wake is more of a passing team than people know. Vegas expects them to struggle early as well, pinning them as a 6 point underdog for their early trip to Tallahassee, even though FSU will be without 5 starters due to Music Appreciatorgate.

I look for Maryland to improve this year. While they lost half of their skill position yards, they return what many consider the best offensive line in the conference. Freidgen is an excellent offensive play caller. I fully expect Maryland's offense to finish in the top 4 this year. Teams have to double team dangerous wide receiver Darius Heyward-Bay on every play and still have to contend with Freidgen's schemes. Combine that with the difficulty getting pressure on the QB due to the offensive line, and Maryland won't be an easy opponent to stop. I'm not worried about their prospects of finding a running back. Their defense, however, is another story which I'll address with a chart at a later date. FSU travels to Maryland in late November. This game worries me because of the weather, Friedgen, and because it is a huge lookahead game with UF being on deck.

0%. Boston College returns 0% of their rushing yards from last year. They lost their QB to the Atlanta Falcons with the 4th overall pick. They return as many starters on the OLine as FSU. To say that BC's offense should take a step back this year is an understatement. One positive, however, is they still have their below average wideout core intact.

NC State should be bad again this year. This team lacks offensive talent. While I do like their running back situation, their QB is unremarkable and their pass catcher's are plain bad.

I'll do the Coastal section in a bit.

Reader Questions

Reader Anonymous asks:

FSU was ranked 3rd in yard per carry and tied for 1st in sacks allowed. That seems contrary to the weak offensive line excuse constantly thrown about in forums the last few years. No?

Not quite. While our running game did get better last season, we still don't face teams selling out against our rush attack. This is simply because we don't run all that often compared to some other teams. FSU is a pass first team, and it is easier to run when facing a defense geared to stop the pass.

Reader Anthronole asks:

I'm not sure I understand how you're calculating Total Yards Lost, Rushing Yards Lost and Receiving Yards Lost and the corresponding percentiles. I'm assuming that is that based on player personnel returning. Maybe?

That is correct. The contributions by players who left/ the total yards (rushing or receiving). If I had 2 running backs, and one rushed for 300, the other for 700, and the 700 graduated, then I'd lose 700 yards and only return 30% of last year's rushing yards.

It seems FSU is right there with many of the other schools in returning starting linemen. I think it'll be interesting to see how FSU does over the season compared with Clemson and WF since we return a similar number of linemen and have a similar number of starts for projected linemen.

This is very important. Clemson and Wake are both massively inexperienced up front, just as FSU is.

Does anyone else think the talk of the OL, while a concern, has been blown out of proportion?

Yes and no. The offensive line play was bad from '05-'07. But the "no" part of my answer is in regards to the amount of attention the line is garnering this year. I do not believe that there will be a dropoff in line play from last year to this year. This is because I don't believe the players FSU lost were very good, plain and simple.

More from user Anonymous (and I encourage you to register. We will interview various commenters throughout the year for their opinions on FSU and this site.)

Pass defense (ranked 85 in the nation) and scoring (ranked 90) are the two biggest concerns I saw.

Surprisingly, on paper it looks like our defense has tanked the most over the last couple years. Last year we were third from last in total defense in the ACC. Rush defense was only average and pass defense was last in the ACC. We've also gone from giving up on average 14 (ranked 2 in the ACC)points in 2004 to giving up 22 (ranked 8 in the ACC) last year.

Back in the JB era, the offensive was surprisingly high scoring compared to the rest of the ACC, but pass heavy. Even though scoring was way down last year, the offense was more balanced under JF.

We have improvements to make on both sides. Offense looks like it should be improved this year, but defense remains questionable.

I will do one of these reviews for ACC defenses soon, probably in the middle of next week.

The error in comparing FSU's offense under Jimbo to the offense under Jeff is this: Jeff benefited for several years from Mark Richt's recruits. Jimbo now has to deal with the remnants of the "nepotism era." Let's wait to judge Jimbo for a bit at least. Also, last year's schedule was much more difficult than our '06 schedule. I'd look back to '05 for a better comparison, and I may do that soon.