Still though, there are a few gripes I have with the poll, so I decided to break it down Vegas Style:
Here are the teams that would be favored by a td or more against us, teams who we'd be favored by a TD or more against, and then games that fall in between. Let's assume a neutral site for these "games", away from either team's state.
Unquestioned underdogs of a TD or more
1. Georgia
2. Southern California
3. Ohio State
4. Oklahoma
5. Florida
6. LSU
7. Missouri
8. West Virginia
9. Clemson
10. Texas
11. Auburn
14. Texas Tech
These squads are more difficult to project, however, we wouldn't be more than a TD dog or a TD fave.
21. South Florida
22. Penn State (Though I'm not sure how much the 2 backup defensive tackle dismissals hurt them.)
12. Wisconsin
13. Kansas
15. Virginia Tech (We are currently favorites by 2 for our game in october.)
16. Arizona State
17. Brigham Young
18. Tennessee
20. Oregon
23.Wake Forest (We're 5.5 favorites right now)
I am about 90% sure we would be TD or more favorites against these.
19. Illinois (Horrible offense)
24. Michigan (Huge player attrition, new system, very few new starters)
25. Fresno State (Sort of average, but they are veteran. Should beat Wisconsin early and will be in the top 25 until they meet Boise State @ season's end.)
Scalper's Top 25
My top 25 looks a little bit different. I base my top 25 on how I Currently believe the best teams are. Once the FSU "music appreciator's" come back from their 3 game vacation, they may enter the poll. I'm not ranking FSU when they are missing 4 defensive starters. The uncertainty at QB also hurts them.
1. Ohio State: Defense returns 10 of 11 starters (several projected 1st rounders), Top rated QB in the big 10, Very good offensive line, Best RB in the country by a long shot (KNOshon it's not Moreno), and they actually out gained LSU in the bowl game last year. One of the only defenses in the country with the speed to hang with UF.
2. Florida: Punted less than 3 times per game last year. Most talented team in the country. Best offense in the country, with both Tebow and the Offense vying to be the best in in football history, respectively. Will have far and away the most improved defense in the nation. They've been stopped with a healthy Tim Tebow only once (Auburn last year.)
3. USC
4. Oklahoma
5. Georgia: Just watch. Last year's road performances: beat Vanderbilt 20-17, beat Alabama 26-23 (OT), lost @ Tennessee 35-14. Still feeling confident? Their best wins: beat Auburn @ home, beat Florida with a statuesque Tebow, beat Hawaii. Other Losses: South Carolina held them under 300 yards in Athens. If they beat good teams at full strength, they'll move up.
6. Texas Tech
7. Missouri
8. Clemson
9. West Virginia
10. South Florida
11. Texas
12. Auburn
13. LSU (Both Auburn and LSU could rise quickly once I see their QB play.)
14. South Carolina (Amazing defense now healthy and Stephen Garcia's suspension was lifted hours ago)
15. Tennessee
16. BYU
17. Penn State
18. Oregon
19. Notre Dame
20. Wisconsin
21. Virginia Tech (Lost everybody on offense, literally)
22. Utah
23. California
25. Arizona State
On the Cusp: Kansas (they play a real schedule this year), Alabama (solid offensive line and 5th year Senior QB), Ole Miss (surprise team of the year?), TCU (veteran squad that plays within their scheme), Pittsburgh (The Stache' is putting together some talent), Wake Forest (lost a ton on offense, could rise quickly), Maryland (underrated)
Delayed Ranking: Florida State ('till Music Appreciatorgate is over)
News & Notes
- Bobby Bowden's comments on the Tim Brando Show fueled rumors that the quarterback decision isn't really in the hands of Jimbo Fisher. Paraphrase: Drew is a capable leader and Ponder is a quality backup. Yuck. Here's hoping that Jimbo throws the entire LSU playbook at both qb's. I really don't see Drew making difficult throws anytime soon.
- A new attitude @ FSU? It's been over three months since the Preston Parker arrest. Now, I do not want to jinx this, but if FSU gets through these next 3 weeks without an arrest, it may signal that a new team attitude. Last week, traditionally a nail-biter, was arguably the most crucial week for avoiding trouble since the players had no "voluntary" read: mandatory workouts. Avoiding trouble there was key. Let's try to skate for 3 more weeks.
- As an FSU Alum, I want players to avoid violent felonies and crimes that show a truly criminal mindset (not too keen on identity theft). I really don't care if they smoke weed as long as they beat the pre-announced drug tests. Dealing is a different story. The rule: don't do anything that would land you on the bottom line of CNN. ESPN? eh, probably okay. Also, stay out of cars as much as possible: they are an express waiver of rights.
- Why is it wrong to cut nonperforming players in college football? FSU cut 5th year Offensive Linemn Geoff Berniard Give me a break. Berniard already graduated. he never sniffed the field and didn't progress like we wanted him to. Why are athletic scholarships different from athletic scholarships? Both have requirements that the recipient must meet. For my academic scholarship, I was required to keep a 3.25 GPA and graduate within 4 years. The scholarship was not guaranteed. Unless I am missing something here, Athletic scholarships require the student to remain in good academic standing (piece of cake with minimal effort) and progress and contribute to the team. They are not guaranteed contracts as in baseball. Geoff was free to leave the team at any time and FSU is free to cut him at any time. College kids regularly transfer without repercussion. The signed letter of intent represents a one year deal and it is implicitly renewed each year upon the agreement of the coaching staff and the player. Here, FSU chose not to renew. They owe him nothing. He was compensated for each year of contribution to FSU football. If he wanted his scholarship to be guaranteed, he should have bargained for it. If he was good enough he might have received the concession, but he wasn't and didn't. Prepare for FSU to get ripped over this. Tell your friends you don't care. This is a step in the right direction if our program is going to get back to its dominant ways.
- What stories do you want to see?
- I'll be adding the comments from the various stories into the actual articles and answering some of the off-topic ones in a mailbag.
- User comments pertaining to the stories will now be added directly into the article! I'll answer them in the actual article if they're good.
- I have the beginnings of a story which details FSU's problems in the running game over the past few years.
- I'll be adding about 2 more pages to The Weatherford Report, so make sure to check back in on that in a day or two.
- We are working on another QB story (basically, why we had to start true frosh for 2 consecutive 4 year terms)
- Which teams lost the most yards due to skill position player departure?
- A story about recruit attrition, retention, development, and the like is in the works and will be a joint venture with ChantRant.
- Lastly, tell your friends about FSUncensored!
- And if you read a story, give a comment. Let us know you're here!
Posts
3 comments:
Scalper- I like your analyses. As a fan of FSU for 23 years and an alum for 20, I wouldn't disagree with much of what you interpret form stats.
However, I wold disagree on your analysis of UGA. Last year was a Tale of Two Seasons: pre- and post- Florida. I've always felt that Richt just wasn't dynamic enough to get the most out of his teams, and was too nice to demand excellence from his coaches. Recently he said that after the Tenn. shellacking and the Vandy malaise the next week, he figured out what was wrong, by looking in the mirror: The team was reflecting his stoic attitude, "standing around waiting for something to happen." He said he purposely changed that for the UF game, and the team responded. Look at the results:
Florida W 42-30
Nov. 3 Troy W 44-34
Nov. 10 Auburn W 45-20
Nov. 17 Kentucky W 24-13
Nov. 24 at Georgia Tech W 31-17
Jan. 1, 2008 Hawaii W 41-10
UGA has a new attitude, and they have everybody back. Their schedule is killer, but if any team in the country can survive it will be them. Trust me when I say they are pumped up in Athens (my kid is a Redcoat).
Anon--
That is an interesting theory.
Confidence certainly is an important component of success.
I caution you, however, on buying into theories that are routed almost solely in attitude.
The stoic attitude thing sounds like it is right out of an Athens newspaper. It's good prose to be sure, but is it really accurate?
Georgia beat a UF team that may have been better off playing without Tebow, yet still gave up 30.
Then, they were OUTAGINED in Athens by both Troy and Kentucky.
The Auburn win is very impressive.
They then kill Ga tech in Atlanta while Tech considers axing their coach.
Then they beat Hawaii and proved Hawaii was not for real.
I have real concerns about their offense being able to move the ball consistently down the field when the big play is not available.
Their yardage numbers were very low in many of the games you mentioned. Additionally, they had only 14 and 16 first downs against Tennessee & Auburn, respectively.
I'm not against a theory that a team has clicked, but I need to see them click and stay clicked in adverse conditions.
I am against factoring in how pumped up a southern town is for a football season. For instance, many were extremely pumped in Tallahassee for the '02-06" seasons, yet they were very disappointed with the results. There is no good way to measure the "pumped" level, but I can assure you that every team is pumped for their upcoming season. Local writers write only about the good.
Ask your son what happened with Georgia on the road last year. I'd also ask him about over reliance or dependence on big plays.
Finally, the odds are just not in UGA's favor. That schedule will kill them with attrition. Additionally, they have had 8 players arrested in the last 3 months, a disturbing trend. For a team that needs to be focusing on the task at hand, it sure doesn't seem that they have been doing so. I don't have UGA, will root for them in basically every game, and like Mark Richt. That said, it is easy for a coach to go all in when he has 4 of his next 5 at home.
Ive been saying for weeks UGA is a 3 loss team for all the reasons you mentioned plus the SEC is absurdly deep this year, more so than any other year. I think Florida's the best team in the country and their gonna be lucky to get out of their schedule with just one loss.
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